Floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) installations are expected to reach an estimated 77GWdc within the next decade, according to a report by Wood Mackenzie.
The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region leads the FPV market, accounting for 81% of all global floating solar developments.
According to Wood Mackenzie’s report Floating Solar Landscape 2024, the APAC region is projected to dominate nine of the top ten global floating solar markets, with an anticipated capacity of 57GWDC from the region by 2033.
Harshul Kanwar, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said: “India, China, and Indonesia are the top three countries globally for FPV capacity, together boasting a total installed capacity of 31GWdc.
“In 2024 alone, approximately 1.7GWdc of new FPV capacity is expected to come online, with the APAC region contributing 90% of this growth.”
Germany, France, and the Netherlands are expected to account for over 60% of Europe’s FPV capacity in the next decade.
According to estimates by Wood Mackenzie, Germany will lead the European FPV market with a projected capacity of 2.2GWdc by 2033.
France and the Netherlands are projected to follow closely with capacities of 1.2GWdc and 1GWdc respectively.
However, the growth of FPV in Europe faces challenges due to restrictive criteria, such as coverage and distance limits.
The United States currently remains a small FPV market, with a projected 0.7GWdc to be installed by 2033.
Due to limited land availability and high capital expenditures (CAPEX), FPV systems face challenges competing with traditional ground-mounted solar installations.
Afiq Naqiuddin, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said: “In the coming years, growing interest from leading renewable energy developers and private investments will drive the deployment of FPV.
“Companies such as BayWa r.e., Ciel & Terre, and Sungrow are expanding their projects across various continents.
“The optimistic growth of FPV systems is driven by rising demand, decreased CAPEX, and supportive policies for lower-carbon energy.
“While FPV CAPEX is approximately US$0.13 to US$0.15 per watt higher than that of ground-mounted solar PV systems, the recent drop in the prices of PERC and TOPCon modules to below US$0.10 per watt has significantly reduced the overall FPV CAPEX.”
Meanwhile, hybrid FPV-hydro projects, which optimise reservoir space and enhance energy storage, are gaining popularity.
According to Wood Mackenzie, the peak installed capacity of these hybrid projects is expected to reach its maximum between 2026 and 2028 due to longer commercialisation timelines.
However, the report also highlighted that multiple clearance requirement for project development, along with inconsistent technical standards, have caused delays in global FPV installations.
As a result, the anticipated capacity has been postponed from 2024 to 2026 and possibly beyond.