The Clean Power 2030 report published today by the National Energy System Operator (NESO) “betrays a limited understanding” of solar and battery energy storage, leading to a “concerning lack of ambition” for the technologies, according to Solar Energy UK.
NESO’s analysis of how the country can slash gas-powered generation “is not of the depth”, SEUK expected, stating it was given little opportunity to contribute to it.
“Solar Energy UK is very concerned that the potential for solar and energy storage has been underplayed in NESO’s Clean Power 30 scenarios and urge the Government to ask some searching questions about the assumptions used.
“It is impossible to see how the growth of rooftop solar and batteries, on homes, factories and warehouses has been taken into account,” said SEUK Chief Executive Chris Hewett (pictured).
“Solar farms are the lowest cost and fastest to deploy power generation in the country, many with co-located batteries.
“Yet the NESO scenarios have no deployment range for solar at all and a conservative range for batteries. This betrays, at best, an oversight, at worst, a fundamental misunderstanding of their potential,” he added.
Hewett pointed out the use of an old and inaccurate figure (15GW) for the UK’s solar generation capacity was also of concern.
The capacity is 17.1GW according to official figures, though the industry believes that the true figure is now approaching 20GW, up from 17.8GW at the end of 2023.
The discrepancy, acknowledged by the Climate Change Committee earlier this year, is due largely to major rooftop installations (such as on warehouses and supermarkets) “not being tracked well” by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.
Accordingly, SEUK anticipates that the deployment of solar and battery energy storage technologies will be even faster than outlined by NESO.
Defining Labour’s clean power goal as unabated gas supplying only 5% of Great Britain’s power over a typical year, the report states that there is “no path” towards the goal without the mass deployment of solar energy and other renewables.
Both scenarios set out in the report assume that the country will reach 47.4GW of solar generation capacity, less than the 50GW outlined by Labour prior to the general election and less than there is in the queue for grid connections.
NESO also sees at least 22.6GW of battery energy storage in 2030, rising to 27.4GW in its ‘Further Flex and Renewables’ pathway, up from 4.7GW in 2023.
“We have every confidence that the solar and battery energy storage industries will exceed the figures outlined by NESO report today, delivering cheaper, greener and more secure energy for the nation,” said Hewett.
Despite problems with the analysis relating to rooftop solar, SEUK nevertheless agrees with NESO’s conclusions that clean power by 2030 is both achievable and beneficial, lessening the chance of price spikes, cutting air pollution and carbon emissions, lowering cooling water consumption, delivering economic growth – and all without an increase to consumer bills.
The next steps will be for the Government to consider the report and draw up its own definition of clean power and plan to deliver it, which will feed into NESO’s Strategic Spatial Energy Plan and reforms to managing the grid queue.
The practical measures that needed to further accelerate the growth of the solar industry will be outlined early next year, in the Solar Taskforce’s Solar Roadmap.
This will cover how the UK should cut waiting times to connect to the grid, deliver skills and training for the future solar workforce, tackle myths and misinformation and cut regulatory and other barriers for rooftop installations – such as reforming planning rules in conservation areas and enabling access to finance.
Another focus will be on maximising domestic supply chains solar energy, such as the production of mounting brackets, cabling and battery energy storage systems.
Solar Energy UK looks forward to working with NESO, the Government and other stakeholders to make clean power by 2030 a reality.