A study by researchers from UCL and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) has found existing fossil fuel projects are sufficient to meet anticipated energy demands in a global transition to net zero emissions.
Their policy paper, published in Science, argues stopping new fossil fuel schemes is a crucial step for countries to achieve their climate goals. It recommends governments legislate to ban new schemes as this is easier politically, economically and legally than closing operational sites early.
The researchers analysed the projected future global demand for oil and gas production, and for coal- and gas-fired power generation, under a range of modelled scenarios that limit climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
They found existing fossil fuel capacity is sufficient to meet the energy demands under these models while the planet transitions to clean power – and new fossil fuel projects are not necessary.
The study extends work by the International Energy Agency which found in a 2021 report (updated in 2023) that no new fossil fuel extraction projects are needed in the transition to net zero by 2050.
The researcher’s new work expands on this by analysing a broad range of scenarios compiled for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report that limit climate change to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
Their analysis found in addition to not needing new fossil fuel extraction, no new coal- and gas-fired power generation was needed.
The study comes at a time the global production and use of fossil fuels has continued to expand, with many governments and industry players claiming new projects will be needed during the transition to net zero. The new UCL–IISD analysis contradicts that claim.
The researchers recommend a ‘no new fossil fuels’ policy, that would mean preventing new schemes for the exploration and extraction of any coal, oil or natural gas reserves. They would also prevent the construction of any new fossil fuel power plants.
“Our research draws lessons from past shifts in global ethical norms, such as slavery and the testing of nuclear weapons,” said lead author Fergus Green of UCL Department of Political Science.
Dr Green added: “These cases show that norms resonate when they carry simple demands to which powerful actors can be held immediately accountable.
“Complex, long-term goals like ‘net zero emissions by 2050′ lack these features, but ‘no new fossil fuel projects’ is a clear and immediate demand, against which all current governments, and the fossil fuel industry, can rightly be judged.
“It should serve as a litmus test of whether a government is serious about tackling climate change: if they’re allowing new fossil fuel projects, then they’re not serious.”
Co-author Steve Pye of UCL Energy Institute added: “Importantly, our research establishes that there is a rigorous scientific basis for the proposed norm by showing that there is no need for new fossil fuel projects.
“The clarity that this norm brings should help focus policy on targeting the required ambitious scaling of renewable and clean energy investment, whilst managing the decline of fossil fuel infrastructure in an equitable and just way.”
IISD senior associate and co-author Greg Muttitt said: “Our research draws on a large range of scientific evidence, including climate scenarios from the IPCC, but its message to governments and fossil fuel companies is very simple: There is no room for new fossil fuel projects in a 1.5°C-aligned world.
“Achieving the Paris Agreement goals means governments need to stop issuing permits for new fossil fuel exploration, production, or power generation projects.”
IISD policy advisor and co-author Olivier Bois von Kursk added: “No new fossil fuel projects are necessary to meet the 1.5°C-aligned energy demand.
“Representative 1.5°C scenarios show that a significant share of existing fossil fuel capital stock will become stranded if we are to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
“Establishing a ‘No New Fossil’ norm increases the likelihood of staying within the 1.5°C limit while minimising the economic, political and legal challenges associated with ‘stranding’ fossil fuel capacity.”