Analysis from energy think tank Ember finds that the EU will reach 66% renewable power in 2030, slightly short of the 69% goal set in REPowerEU, based on targets of member states.
Of this, wind and solar would provide approximately 52%, becoming the dominant sources of renewable electricity.
The analysis considers targets from 22 draft National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), alongside nationally announced policies from Belgium, Bulgaria, Ireland, Latvia and Poland which have not yet submitted updated NECPs.
Reflecting the shockwaves of the energy crisis, 16 out of 19 EU countries have used their draft NECPs to raise wind capacity targets for 2030, while 17 out of 19 countries have raised solar ambition.
Compared to the 2019 NECPs, national targets have been increased by an average of 45% for wind installed capacity and around 70% for solar.
“With the EU pushing for a global tripling of renewables at COP28, it’s vital that the bloc gets its own house in order by delivering ambitious national energy and climate plans,” said Ember Analyst Dr. Chris Rosslowe.
Ember estimates that this updated ambition puts the EU on course for between 623GW to 672GW of solar by 2030, more than triple the 2022 capacity of 195GW.
Wind is set to more than double, going from 204GW capacity in 2022 to 450GW by 2030.
However, this is still short of the fleet of 740GW solar and 500GW wind power by 2030 that is needed to meet the goals of the EU Green Deal and the REPowerEU plan.
Among member states NECPs, Germany has among the most ambitious increases in solar targets, adding a huge 93GW, or 76% to its 2030 target since 2019.
Several countries with previously very low solar targets are now planning for a more significant role for solar by 2030, such as Lithuania and Czechia (5.1GW and 10.1GW).
The Netherlands, currently a solar leader, is the only member not to increase its solar target at all compared with 2019, reflecting challenges with integrating solar into the grid.
For wind, Estonia, Lithuania, and Denmark all announced major increases in ambition, all doubling targets set in 2019.
However, three member states (France, Slovenia and Cyprus) have not increased wind targets since 2019.