From 2028 demand for offshore turbine towers will outstrip manufacturing capacity, according to modelling from Rystad Energy.
The company’s offshore wind capacity outlook shows wind tower manufacturing capacity will keep pace and exceed demand before 2028.
However, that year is the turning point, and in 2029 demand will surpass manufacturing capacity by a “significant margin”.
Steel demand for offshore wind towers will total more than 1.7m tonnes in 2029, but manufacturing capacity will be a maximum of around 1.3m tonnes, meaning supply can only meet about 70% of demand.
If Europe is to reverse this trend, manufacturers need to initiate expansion in the next two years, since it takes between two and three years to build new factories.
These forecasts assume no major steel shortage, so manufacturers can work at full capacity. If a shortage materialises, Europe could face a supply issue even earlier than expected, said Rystad.
Rystad Energy vice president Alexander Flotre said: “Since constructing a tower manufacturing facility can take three years, European producers must initiate more expansions within the next two years, at the latest.
“They should not find this problematic as wind towers are made of steel, with no particularly complex or specialised machinery required.”
While the average turbine capacity fixed in Europe in 2023 is expected to reach almost 10MW, Rystad Energy estimates that 50% of the machines installed between 2029 and 2035 will be bigger than 14MW, with some projects forecasting to build 20MW at the beginning of 2030.
It is instructive to note that a tower’s weight varies with the hub height, which is required to be more than half of the rotor diameter – excluding the clearance to the water surface – and which fluctuates from country to country.
In addition, as rotor dimensions grow, turbine sizes increase and larger towers are required.
This growth is more prominent in Europe, where offshore wind developers have requested units of 12MW or larger for their projects.
Spain and Denmark lead European offshore wind tower supply, accounting for about 90% of the estimated 1.1m tonnes of the continent’s supply.