Japan’s offshore wind market is forecast to grow to over 6GW of capacity, supported by ongoing auctions of seabed acreage and important streamlining of the permitting process.
According to Clarksons Research this growth will entail the installation of 600 turbines by 2030, from 59 turbines providing an installed capacity of 190MW today.
Clarksons Research has released onto its Renewables Intelligence Network (RIN) platform a new report profiling Japan’s offshore wind sector, including an update on recent policy changes, coverage of the upcoming round of offshore wind auctions and a capacity forecast out to 2030.
While the development of the Japanese wind market has stalled in recent years, it now appears to be gaining momentum, with the government recently revising its guidelines for the second round of offshore wind auctions.
The second round of auctions will see the seabed rights to 1.8GW of capacity awarded to developers later this year, with 700MW to be awarded off Niigata, 692MW set to be awarded of Akita and 424MW off Nagasaki.
Active capacity in Japan stands at 190MW following the commissioning of the country’s first commercial-scale offshore wind projects in December 2022 and January 2023.
Around 344MW is under construction off Japan and set to come online by the end of 2025, while an additional 1.9GW has secured offtake agreements.
Capacity growth in Japan looks set to be led by local utilities and developers such as TEPCO (2.1 GW of proposed capacity) and Mitsubishi (1.8 GW of potential capacity), as well as international developers such as RWE (1.2 GW of proposed capacity).
Floating foundations will likely be required in parts of Japan’s coastal seas due to deep waters.
Under its sixth Strategic Energy Plan, Japan is aiming for wind power (onshore and offshore) to account for 5% of its energy mix by 2030 (it is 1% today).
To achieve this, the government is targeting at least 5.7GW of offshore wind capacity to be online by 2030.
In addition, the government aims to approve 10GW by 2030 and 30-45GW by 2040.