The world is at a “crossroads” with all the options in all sectors available to at least halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, according to the latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The IPCC’s ‘Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change’ report, released today, said limiting global warming will require major transitions in the energy sector.
This will involve a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, widespread electrification, improved energy efficiency, and use of alternative fuels, such as hydrogen, the paper said.
IPCC Working Group III co-chair Priyadarshi Shukla said: “Having the right policies, infrastructure and technology in place to enable changes to our lifestyles and behaviour can result in a 40-70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
“This offers significant untapped potential. The evidence also shows that these lifestyle changes can improve our health and wellbeing.”
The report said that the next few years are critical.
In the scenarios assessed, limiting warming to around 1.5°C requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by 43% by 2030.
At the same time, methane would also need to be reduced by about one third.
“Even if we do this, it is almost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this temperature threshold but could return to below it by the end of the century,” IPCC said.
IPCC Working Group III co-chair Jim Skea said: “It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”
The assessment shows that limiting warming to around 2°C still requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest, and be reduced by one quarter by 2030.
The report said that between 2010 and 2019 average annual global GHG emissions were at their highest levels in human history, but the rate of growth has slowed.
Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, limiting global warming to 1.5°C is beyond reach.
However, there is increasing evidence of climate action, said the report.
IPCC chair Hoesung Lee said: “We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a liveable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming.
“I am encouraged by climate action being taken in many countries. There are policies, regulations and market instruments that are proving effective.
“If these are scaled up and applied more widely and equitably, they can support deep emissions reductions and stimulate innovation.”
Achieving net zero will be challenging and will require new production processes, low and zero emissions electricity, hydrogen, and, where necessary, carbon capture and storage, the report said.
It also looked beyond technologies and demonstrates that while financial flows are a factor of three to six times lower than levels needed by 2030 to limit warming to below 2°C, there is sufficient global capital and liquidity to close investment gaps.
However, it relies on clear signalling from governments and the international community, including a stronger alignment of public sector finance and policy.
Shukla said: “Without taking into account the economic benefits of reduced adaptation costs or avoided climate impacts, global Gross Domestic Product would be just a few percentage points lower in 2050 if we take the actions necessary to limit warming to 2°C or below, compared to maintaining current policies.”
ScottishPower chief executive Keith Anderson said: “Today’s IPPC report rightly calls for a rapid global phase-out of fossil fuels to address the climate crisis and here in the UK, we are showing that renewable energy is the way to a cleaner, better future for us all.
“Investing with urgency in renewable generation and the pylons and wires in the electricity grid to transport it is critical and at ScottishPower we are investing billions to support a just transition here in the UK.
“Now is the time to turn this from a marathon into a sprint and accelerate the shift to green energy – a source of power we have in abundance in the UK – and ensure clean, homegrown electricity that gives us energy security at the same time.”