Around 348GW of global wind capacity is forecast to be installed between now and 2024, bringing total global wind power capacity to nearly 1000GW, according to a new report from the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).
Cumulative global wind energy market will grow at a compound annual rate of 8.5% during this time, resulting in a 54% increase of total wind power installations compared to 2019.
Over 50% of the onshore wind capacity added between 2020 to 2024 will be installed in China and the US, led by installation rushes to meet subsidy deadlines.
GWEC said that while some project completion dates have been pushed into 2021 due to the pandemic, next year is expected to be a “record year” for the wind industry with 78GW of new wind capacity forecasted to be installed in 2021.
GWEC’s Market Intelligence forecasts 71.3GW of new capacity in 2020, despite the impacts of Covid-19, a 6% decrease from forecasts in Q1 2020.
The forecast for offshore wind installations in 2020 has been increased by 5% from pre-pandemic forecasts to 6.5GW, led by the installation rush in China.
GWEC CEO Ben Backwell said: “While the Covid-19 crisis has impacted every industry across the world, wind power has continued to grow and thrive.
“This is no surprise given the cost competitiveness of wind energy and the need to rapidly reproduce carbon emissions.
“Fossil fuel industries face market fluctuations and require bailouts to stay afloat, while wind turbines across the world have continued to spin and provide affordable, clean energy to citizens everywhere.”
GWEC strategy director Feng Zhao added: “China and the US will continue to be the two main markets driving growth over the next few years.
“We have increased or maintained our forecasts for onshore wind in regions such as Latin America, North America, Africa, and the Middle East over the next five years, with only minor decreases in Asia Pacific and Europe.
“However, these reductions are not necessarily a direct impact of Covid-19, but also a symptom of pre-existing regulatory issues, such as protracted permitting procedures, which are slowing down installations.
“In particular, offshore wind has demonstrated its resilience by exceeding our pre-pandemic forecasts for 2020 and will be an important source of growth in the decade ahead”.
Zhao said the series of carbon neutrality commitments by major economies such as China, Japan and South Korea over the past few weeks will increase the forecast for wind power over the next few decades.
He said the “right enabling regulatory and policy frameworks” must be in place to accelerate renewable energy growth to meet these targets.
“China, the world’s largest wind power market and largest carbon emitter, has pledged to go carbon-neutral by 2060.
“To have a chance at achieving this target, we need to be installing 50GW of wind power per year in China from now until 2025, and then 60GW from 2026 onwards.
“It is crucial that governments firm up carbon neutrality targets with tangible actions to drive wind and other renewable energy growth at the levels needed to achieve these aims.”