The UK’s next Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction will likely be fiercely competitive with around 13GW of projects lining up to take part, according to the latest research from Cornwall Insight.
The UK government is planning to reinstate ‘Pot 1’ technologies, which includes onshore wind and solar PV, in the next Allocation Round 4 (AR4) in 2021.
Around 13GW of the UK’s pipeline could potentially be eligible, showed research from research outfit’s Renewable Pipeline tracker.
The total is split between 5.5GW of ‘Pot 1’ technologies, 6GW of offshore wind and a smaller proportion of ~1.0GW for ‘Pot 2’ technologies, with a significant proportion being Remote Island Wind (RIW).
A large majority of the potential CfD AR4 pipeline is located in Scotland, the data showed.
Cornwall Insight wholesale manager James Brabben said the data is revealing, not just from a commercial perspective, but on the interactions of wider policy and network charging.
He commented: “The onshore wind capacity totals 4.2GW, a high figure considering the ~13GW in operation currently. Of this, over 3.8GW is in Scotland, highlighting the continued concentration of sites here.”
Brabben noted that Scotland is home to the entire RIW pipeline, which totals 900MW.
“Dominating this is the potential 450MW Viking wind farm development on the Shetland Isles. With offshore wind carved into a separate ‘Pot 3’, RIW projects could be in a more competitive position when compared to previous auctions,” he said.
The wholesale manager also said the pipeline may change by 2021.
“Some sites continue to look at subsidy-free and merchant options instead, while new sites may also join the queue for the CfD,” Brabben said.