The UK will hit a ‘glass ceiling’ of 80% renewables deployment by 2040 that will require new technologies to achieve full power sector decarbonisation according to a new report.
The ‘Solving the Flexibility Challenge’ study by Eaton, Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Statkraft found the UK’s efforts to cut emissions by 80% by 2050 could be hampered by a lack of dispatchable power sources such as storage.
The shortfall could require the development of power-to-gas solutions or greater use of bioenergy to a reach a 100% renewable future in the UK.
The report found the rate of storage deployment before 2040 will have a “very large influence” on the speed of the renewable energy transition in the UK.
The high-storage scenario finds that by 2030, lower storage costs reduce power sector emissions by 13% and fossil backup capacity by 12%.
“Without energy storage, smart-charging electric vehicles, demand response and interconnectors, the UK energy transition risks proceeding on a suboptimal path, with a power system reliant on fossil backup and oversized renewable capacity,” it stated.
The report forecasts renewable to comprise 74% of the energy mix by 2030 and 80% by 2040 but in all scenarios a lack of flexibility would have a real cost.
The low-flexibility scenario sees power sector emissions a full 36% higher in 2040.