German consumers could save some €1.5bn if policymakers allowed WPD’s 752MW Gennaker project to participate in the country’s upcoming offshore wind auctions, a report by consultancy Windresearch has found.
Under new offshore wind rules that come into effect in January, the Baltic Sea project would not be allowed to participate in the 2017 and 2018 tender rounds. Only projects with permission hearings held before 1 August 2016 will be eligible.
WPD, which commissioned the report, hopes policymakers will extend the deadline until the end of the year because it said no reason has been given for the August cut off date.
Windresearch said a deadline shift that would allow Gennaker to be included could have a significant impact on the auction outcome leading to a lower price and smaller surcharges for energy customers.
In its analysis, the consultancy assumed a uniform price level for turbines and foundations.
It also assumed that the typical price level of a German wind farm going online between 2021 and 2025 will be 30% above the recent €49.99 per megawatt-hour Kriegers Flak tender result.
Based on these assumptions, Windresearch said Gennaker would be well placed to win the first auction in March 2017.
Other projects in a favourable position for the first auction include Northland Power’s 480MW Nordsee 3 and the first 268MW section of Dong Energy’s Gode Wind 4 projects, both located in the North Sea, the consultancy said.
In the 2018 auction, the authors see the second 68MW section of Gode Wind 4 in the lead, along with EnBW’s 952MW He Dreiht/Albatros, Innogy’s 252MW Kaskasi 2 and a 294MW section of Dong’s 360MW Borkum Riffgrund West 1 projects.
Taking Gennaker out of the analysis, Windresearch said the likely winners of the first auction are British Wind Energy’s 252MW Ostseeschatz and Seawind’s 504MW projects in the Baltic Sea, along with Nordsee 3 and Gode Wind 4.
In the second auction not including Gennaker would see He Dreiht/Albatros, Kaskasi 2 and Borkum Riffgrund West 1 predicted as the winners.
Image: WPD
