The UK faces a 40–55% electricity supply gap is the government implements its plans to close all coal-fired power stations by 2025 on top of retiring ageing nuclear power stations, according to the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.
In a report, the Engineering the UK Electricity Gap, IMechE said plans to plug the gap by building combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants are unrealistic, as the UK would need to build about 30 in less than 10 years.
The UK has built just four CCGTs in the last 10 years, closed one and eight other power stations. In addition, in 2005 20 nuclear sites were listed for decommissioning, leaving a significant gap to be filled, the report said.
“The country has neither the resources nor enough people with the right skills to build this many power stations in time.
“It is already too late for any other nuclear reactors to be planned and built by the coal ‘shut-off’ target of 2025, other than Hinkley Point C,” it said.
The report also highlighted that a greater reliance on interconnectors to import electricity from Europe and Scandinavia is likely to lead to higher electricity costs and less energy security.
The IMechE report makes three recommendations.
First, the UK Infrastructure Commission should assess the necessary incentives for industry and the public to reduce the demand on the electricity system through engineering efficiencies into processes and equipment, awareness raising and advocacy.
Second, the commission must urgently implement the changes necessary across the industry and supply chain to deliver security of electricity supply with no coal-fired generation.
These include investment in research and development activities for renewables, energy storage, combined heat and power and innovation in power station design and build.
Third, the UK government and its delivery bodies, along with industry, should review the capacity in the supply chains to deliver the construction of the ‘most likely’ new power infrastructure.
This includes identifying timeframes and milestones for conventional and unconventional power generation build – fossil fuel, nuclear, energy storage, combined heat and power and off-grid options – along with growth in skills and knowledge within the UK to meet the potential increase in demand.
IMechE head of energy and environment and lead author of the report Jenifer Baxter said: “Currently there are insufficient incentives for companies to invest in any sort of electricity infrastructure or innovation and worryingly even the government’s own energy calculator does not allow for the scenarios that new energy policy points towards.
“Under current policy, it is almost impossible for UK electricity demand to be met by 2025.”
RenewableUK director of policy Gordon Edge said: “The Institution of Mechanical Engineers is right to highlight the importance of developing renewables and to express concern over the loss of renewables incentives.
“As onshore wind is the cheapest low carbon option, it makes no sense to exclude it from the marketplace.
“The government is well aware that no new capacity, including gas-fired power stations, will be built without some level of financial support, but it needs to realise that this is not necessarily the same as subsidy.
“We urgently need clarity from Ministers on how onshore wind can continue to play a vital role in bridging the energy gap while also helping keep bills as low as possible.”
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