Increased activity in western markets and Africa will drive a 10-year compound annual growth rate of 10% for grid-connected wind power.
This will lead to 2.38 terawatts (TW) of cumulative installed capacity at the end of 2032, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie’s “Global wind power market outlook update: Q3 2023” report, finds this long-term growth will take place despite short-term challenges that have caused a net downgrade of 10.1GW from 2023 to 2025.
“There is encouraging activity in western markets across North America, South America and Europe with revisions of national energy and climate plan (NECP) targets, positive auction developments, and strengthened repowering projections,” said Luke Lewandowski, vice president, global renewables research at Wood Mackenzie
“We are also tracking advancement of megaprojects in Africa that are driving growth.
“This will all help offset some of the short-term challenges in the global offshore market, particularly in China.”
China’s new “Single 30” regulation, coupled with global inflation and supply chain challenges, has impacted offshore economics, leading to project cancelations and postponements, causing the near-term slowdown in growth.
However, the new repowering policy in China provides a boost to the long-term global outlook, with annual build from 2026 through 2032 averaging 170GW per year.
To achieve this, total CapEx investment projections for wind power in the 10-year outlook will equal US $2.5tn, with offshore accounting for $850bn of this activity.
“This year and next will be more challenging than predicted earlier in the year, but the long-term trends are still very positive for cumulative capacity growth across all regions,” said Lewandowski.