Battery storage assets in ERCOT are seeing record forward values despite recent underperformance, according to Pexapark’s latest Q3 ERCOT Market Update.
The company said the energy arbitrage value of BESS over the next decade has risen by as much as 19% year-on-year across three of the four ERCOT hubs.
Pexapark said the findings point to a more bullish long-term view of storage as load growth and renewables penetration widen intraday spreads.
The firm added that BESS toll offers remained mostly flat or fell, signalling a potential growth opportunity as rising value levels converge with competitive offer pricing.
Yaniv Yaffe, Pexapark product manager, said: “Expected load growth coupled with high levels of solar penetration mean that intraday spreads in ERCOT will, in general, get wider, with consistent midday dips and increasingly prominent shoulder hour spikes.”
He said: “This dynamic strengthens the long-term economic rationale for BESS even if recent summers saw decreased levels of price volatility.”
Pexapark said wind and solar PPAs have faced a more challenging environment since the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill.
The company said a 7% rise in the forward market helped lift the fair value of wind and solar PPAs in the quarter, but offer prices rose faster, by 12% for wind and 13% for solar.
It added that only three ERCOT PPAs were publicly announced in Q3, fewer than half the number signed in the same period last year.
Pexapark said higher offer prices reflect a more hostile regulatory landscape as the OBBBA phases out clean energy tax credits by mid-2026 and imposes strict sourcing rules on Chinese components.
Luca Pedretti, chief operating officer and co-founder of Pexapark, said: “The ERCOT market is facing temporary but acute policy-driven shocks that have created a pricing gap between project costs and buyers’ willingness to pay.”
He added: “For wind and solar, the price gap is now significant and is contributing to the shift in focus toward BESS.”