EirGrid has forecast a reduced risk of electricity system alerts this winter, with sufficient generation available to meet demand across Ireland.
The grid operator’s Winter Outlook for 2025/26 shows the power system will operate within the level of risk set by the Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment.
Covering the period from 3 November 2025 to 5 April 2026, the annual assessment identifies a Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) of 1.1 hours for the five-month period, well inside Ireland’s annual standard of three hours.
EirGrid said the LOLE figure had fallen from 3.6 hours last winter, 21 hours the year before, and 51 hours in 2022/23.
It attributed the improvement to new sources of generation, the completion of the 500 MW Greenlink Interconnector with Britain, and continued implementation of the Commission for Regulation of Utilities’ Security of Supply Programme.
Through that programme, 750 MW of retained units at Moneypoint and 649 MW of temporary emergency generation are available as additional out-of-market capacity when required.
A further 108 MW of new gas-fired peaking plant and 45 MW of battery storage, delivered through the Capacity Market, have also come online.
EirGrid noted that the system may enter an Amber Alert at times of low wind or interconnector imports, but said the probability of an Emergency Red Alert was low.
Protocols with large energy users remain in place to protect homes and businesses should short-notice actions be required.
A review of the 2024/25 winter found two system alerts, both weather-related and not linked to generation adequacy.
Peak demand reached a record 6,024 MW on 8 January 2025, and the median forecast for this winter is 6,044 MW.
Diarmaid Gillespie (pictured), director of system operations at EirGrid, said: “The risk of insufficient generation being available to meet demand this Winter is much lower than in recent years and within the standards set by our Department, which is positive.”
“While the situation can be more challenging during the colder winter months, the securing of new generators and battery storage units through the Capacity Market, and out of market measures, have been key to delivering this improved position.
“Our role at EirGrid is to balance supply and demand every minute of the day from the National Control Centre, while also planning for Ireland’s long-term electricity needs. Our grid infrastructure and the capacity and capability of EirGrid to fulfil its critical role is fundamental to unlocking greater energy independence and security, as well as supporting national and regional economic growth and a resilient society.
“We will continue to meet the needs of electricity demand growth in Ireland in a complex and evolving supply-demand dynamic.”