The world will fall far short of hitting the 2050 net zero ambition established by the COP21 Paris Agreement even if all new electricity generation is from renewable sources, according to a new report.
DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook said electrification is on course to double in size within a generation and renewables are already the most competitive source of new power.
However, the forecast shows global emissions will reduce only 9% by 2030, with the 1.5˚C carbon budget agreed by global economies emptied by then.
The COP21 Paris Agreement was intended to keep global warming to “well below 2°C” and strive to limit its increase to 1.5°C. DNV has been consistent in forecasting a rapid transition to a decarbonized energy system by mid-century.
As rapid as that transition is, DNV’s forecast is that despite every effort being made, it remains not fast enough for the world to achieve the ambitions of the Paris Agreement and warns the planet will most likely reach global warming of 2.3˚C by end of the century.
DNV chief executive Remi Eriksen said: “We’ve seen governments around the world take extraordinary steps to manage the effects of the pandemic and stimulate a recovery. However, I am deeply concerned about what it will take for governments to apply the resolution and urgency they have shown in the face of the pandemic to our climate. We must now see the same sense of urgency to avoid a climate catastrophe.”
He added: “Many of the pandemic recovery packages have largely focused on protecting, rather than transforming, existing industries. A lot of ‘building back’ as opposed to ‘building better’ and although this is a lost opportunity, it is not the last we have for transitioning faster to a deeply decarbonized energy system.”
The report, now in its fifth year and launched two months before COP26 takes place in Glasgow, also highlights the global pandemic as a “lost opportunity” for speeding up the energy transition, as Covid-19 recovery packages have largely focused on protecting rather than transforming existing industries.