The UK is not on track to meet mid-century decarbonisation targets, according to new report from DNV.
Its UK Energy Transition Outlook concludes that the government must mobilise a clear roadmap to attain net zero by 2050.
The report forecasts that while the energy landscape in the UK will continue to shift from fossil fuels, with almost half of the country’s energy demand being delivered by electricity in 2050, this will not be enough to meet the 100% reduction in emissions, legislated for in 2019.
Similarly, the UK will also not meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitment of reducing emissions by 68% by 2030 under the Paris Agreement.
While the UK has made strong progress to reduce carbon emissions, the government’s absence of a committed roadmap and relevant business models to deliver on those ambitions is stalling the implementation needed to reduce emissions to the point where net zero goals can be achieved, according to the report.
In positive news for domestic consumers, household energy expenditure is expected to halve, driven by increased electrification of household heating and passenger transport.
However, DNV’s report highlights that the transport and building sectors are the major remaining contributors to the total annual emissions by 2050.
Building emissions could be eliminated through a combination of boosting heat pump penetration up to 20 million households and decarbonising the remainder by substituting natural gas with green hydrogen.
Investment in underground hydrogen storage is essential in supporting the switch to green hydrogen and to take advantage of low-cost renewables, the report also states.
Hari Vamadevan, executive vice president and regional director, UK & Ireland, Energy Systems at DNV, said:”Our UK Energy Outlook report clearly demonstrates that early ambition and action has allowed the UK to make good progress, but unless the government implements a compelling roadmap backed by clear business models and supportive regulatory frameworks, the UK will not meet these targets.
“We firmly believe the UK can meet its 2050 net zero objective, but this will require clear and early policy decisions, particularly focused around the decarbonisation of heating in buildings and transport.
“The UK has a major role to play in helping the world meet the targets of the Paris Agreement – as a country we need to go further and faster, going beyond our targets and investing more to support this vision.”