A new report claims a ‘gargantuan’ effort is needed if the UK government is to meet is Clean Power 2030 targets.
LCP Delta has published the independent report outlining the road to Clean Power 2030, as well as the levels of investment and deployment needed to decarbonise the UK economy beyond 2030.
It says Clean Power 2030 is technically achievable, but unprecedented levels of build and investment are needed to reach the target.
Even if the UK reaches its goal, the challenge will continue beyond 2030, as demand on the electricity grid is set to increase by 50% to 2035 and double by 2050.
The focus now is on meeting Clean Power 2030, but with the increase in demand expected to double between 2030 and 2035, greater levels of investment will be needed to address a capacity gap of up to 20GW, the report warned.
Head of energy economics, policy, and investment at LCP Delta Sam Hollister said: “Delivering a Clean Power energy system by 2030 is technically achievable but it will need government, industry, regulators and investors to move heaven and earth to meet it.
“What comes after though and achieving net zero by 2050 is arguably an even greater challenge.
“Except for offshore wind, the UK will need to build higher volumes of every energy technology between 2030 and 2050 than what it needs to build pre-2030.
“From a CapEx spend perspective, this means that our investments need to increase from £120bn pre-2030 to £235bn between 2030 and 2050.
“Clean Power 2030 is the base camp of a mountain that the UK must climb by 2050.
“To reach Clean Power 2030 will need a gargantuan effort from all involved.”
Hollister said to maintain Clean Power beyond 2030, the UK will need to develop technologies such as carbon capture and storage and using clean fuels such as hydrogen in power generation.
“In our scenario, we are expecting to see demand between 2030 to 2035 increase by 100TWh, this is more than double the increase expected from now to 2030.”
LCP Delta’s analysis says there needs to be an unprecedented scale up of all key low-carbon technologies. The rate of building new energy technologies in 2023 at 3GW was significantly below the 11.3GW build level required to reach 2030, the report said.
It warned that Clean Power 2030 is not achievable with the current development timelines for upgrading the transmission network.
The government also needs to speed up decisions on key policies and market reforms to reduce uncertainty for investors, the report warned.
Hollister added: “There are only five years to achieve the levels of low carbon build that is required to reach Clean Power.
“Renewables alone can’t get us there. We need other technologies such as long duration energy storage and low-carbon thermal solutions such as gas carbon capture storage and hydrogen power generation to support a renewables-based energy system.
“Developing the transmission network to get energy from the north to the south, and scaling up capacity, particularly on local networks, is also one the biggest roadblock that needs to be overcome.”