US power transformer supply is set to face a 30% deficit next year, with distribution transformers short by 10%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The consultancy said surging demand since 2019, driven by higher electricity consumption, a growing clean energy pipeline and ageing infrastructure, has left domestic manufacturing struggling to keep pace.
Power transformer demand has risen 116% and distribution units 41% since 2019, with imports expected to supply 80% and 50% of each market respectively in 2025.
Senior analyst Ben Boucher said this imbalance was “escalating costs and lead times” and delaying new plant connections.
Policy changes are adding pressure, with Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill expected to reduce clean energy support and raise transformer costs. New tariffs – including a 50% levy on copper from August – will further lift prices for imported and domestic units.
OEMs have announced $1.8bn of North American capacity expansion since 2023, but Wood Mackenzie warned demand growth would require further spending to rebalance the market.
Boucher said supply constraints threaten the US energy transition and grid reliability goals, and called for coordinated action on manufacturing standardisation, trade policy, workforce development and raw material supply.