China’s solar exports grew 64% to $52bn in 2022 despite global trade tensions, according to latest analysis from Wood Mackenzie.
China’s exports were mainly dominated by modules in 2022 – Europe remained the country’s top export market for the kit with 56% share, according to Wood Mackenzie findings.
But solar cells saw more than 100% growth as the global PV market expanded, with south-east Asia taking 31% share of China’s exports.
US tariffs on Chinese-made modules have driven production to south-east Asia, where many manufacturing facilities import cells from China.
“Trade tensions have taken a back seat to high power prices driven by the energy crisis, and this is causing consumers and developers from around the world to buy more solar panels from China,” said Alex Whitworth, research director from Wood Mackenzie.
Chinese modules kept their cost-competitiveness against other markets in 2022 and were up to 57% cheaper than US and EU produced modules.
This price gap was mainly driven by material cost, where China holds the advantage due to low energy costs, scale advantages and government support, whereas US and EU solar module manufacturing is not competitive without subsidies.
In addition to domestic supply needs, Chinese export capacity for upstream wafers and cells is forecast to grow to more than 230GW in 2026, more than sufficient to meet global market demand outside China of 170GW by that year.
Available module capacity for export in China is also expected to grow gradually to 149GW by 2026, leaving some room for other markets to expand module production.
More manufacturers are investing in upstream sectors which are more profitable than modules.
Whitworth said: “The US is counting on the IRA, which will allocate at least $41bn to stimulate domestic manufacturing.
“But costs still favour imported modules, and even as more local module production comes online in coming years, there will be persistent dependence on imports of components from Asia.”