Solar is likely to be fastest growing energy sub segment in 2023 with demand set to increase 20-30%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Bloomberg Intelligence sees growth in solar demand surpassing 20% in 2023-25 with industry-wide revenue for the companies in BI’s global solar theme basket on track to exceed $220bn in 2023.
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Global Solar Energy 2023 Outlook found that global solar demand rose about 40% in 2022 with industry revenues increasing about 50%.
Such fast top line growth could be one of the factors that helped buoy solar share prices this year relative to the overall market.
While solar shares have outperformed the broader market so far this year, Bloomberg Intelligence found that most solar shares are still well below their record highs in the first quarter of 2021.
This follows the International Energy Agency announcing it expects solar energy to surpass coal power by 2027 as the energy crisis and war in Ukraine drives a shift to renewables.
Rob Barnett, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst (Clean Energy), said: “The growth of solar follows a record 2022, during which global solar capacity additions expanded about 47%.
“Best in class peers such as Enphase or First Solar could see their sales growth exceed 30% in 2023, and amid such fast line growth, we believe profitability metrics are poised to improve based on an easing of input costs and supply chain constraints.”
Bloomberg Intelligence stated double digit growth is fuelled by favourable economics: a new solar system’s levelised cost of electricity (the average cost of an electron produced by a specific power plant over the life of the asset) is about $40 a megawatt hour, roughly in line with a new wind plant and over 50% cheaper vs a new coal one.
Unlike nuclear power, the cost of installing solar is likely to get cheaper in the future as efficiencies improve and manufacturing expands.
European policy support for solar is also strong with the European Commission’s REPowerEU plan aiming to double the installed capacity of solar power to more than 320GW by 2025, which may lift consensus sales estimates for 2023-25.
By 2030, the EU is aiming for 600GW of installed solar capacity, an indication that sales momentum could be maintained through the end of this decade.