US cumulative community solar installations are forecasted to break 14GWdc in existing state markets by 2028, according to the latest report released by Wood Mackenzie in collaboration with the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA).
Annual installation volumes landed around 1GWdc for the third consecutive year in 2023, and 8% average annual growth is expected through 2028, the report found.
Caitlin Connelly, research analyst and lead author of the report, said: “Near-term growth in Wood Mackenzie’s national outlook is driven by robust pipelines in existing state markets like New York and Illinois.
“Longer-term, newer state markets support lasting growth as mature markets saturate.
“Additionally, developers will begin to benefit from the incentives within the Inflation Reduction Act as soon as this year.”
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that 7.6GWdc of new community solar will come online in existing state markets between 2024 and 2028.
The national market is expected to break 10GWdc of cumulative capacity by 2026.
Community solar installations totalled 827MWdc through Q3 2023, an 8% increase compared to the first three quarters of 2022.
Last year, community solar made up 40% of total US non-residential solar, Wood Mackenzie found.
Non-residential solar made up 9% of total US solar capacity in 2023, according to the report.
Connelly added: “The early years of community solar served almost exclusively commercial anchor customers; however, stricter LMI requirements in state programs and the availability of LMI-focused federal incentives are beginning to reveal a more well-rounded, community-focused subscriber profile.”
Wood Mackenzie and CSSA’s reporting also includes alternative forecasts to benchmark key market uncertainties.
Because community solar is highly dependent on state and federal legislation, analysis reveals there is more room for downside than upside in existing community solar state markets.
Under a bull case scenario, the national five-year forecast increases by 13% compared to Wood Mackenzie’s base case.
In a bear case scenario, the national outlook decreases by 38%, it said.
However, the establishment of new state markets will create at least an additional 10% upside to Wood Mackenzie’s base case forecasts if legislation to enable new programmes is passed, Wood MacKenzie added.