Europe will need around one-and-a-half trillion Euro in cumulative investment by 2050 to support a tripling of renewable energy capacity, according to Aurora Energy Research’s 2026 European Renewables Market Overview Report.
Solar, onshore wind and offshore wind capacity have already grown by over 150% in the past decade, setting the stage for one of Europe’s largest long-term infrastructure investment cycles, the analyst said.
Nearly €600 billion will be required by 2030 alone, with spending expected to accelerate thereafter as countries seek to meet climate targets and replace ageing thermal generation, added the company.
In the near term, subsidies and power purchase agreements will remain the dominant routes to market, though their attractiveness varies widely by country and technology.
Rebecca McManus, lead expert for European renewables at Aurora Energy Research, said: “Europe is on the brink of a renewables surge, with solar and wind capacity set to more than triple by 2050. Yet, this wave of investment will only deliver its promise if policymakers and industry leaders tackle grid and development bottlenecks. The European Grids Package is a positive step, aiming to accelerate permitting and unlock stalled projects.”
Two-sided contracts for difference will remain the primary support mechanism, with 162GW of renewable capacity already announced for auction procurement by 2030, according to the report.
Aurora noted that offshore wind auctions have faced growing challenges, with recent rounds in Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark failing to attract any bids and Lithuania’s latest auction securing only one bidder.
PPAs provide an alternative route to market, with Spain, Great Britain and Germany accounting for most announced PPA-backed capacity, while solar PPA prices have fallen to record lows below €40/MWh in Germany and Spain, reflecting cannibalisation effects, stated the analyst.
Jörn Richstein, research lead for pan European power markets, policies and technologies at Aurora Energy Research, said: “Power Purchase Agreements are playing an increasingly central role in Europe’s renewables growth, especially in countries without viable subsidy schemes, or where fuelled by rising corporate demand, as industries step up their decarbonisation efforts. Innovative and flexible PPA contracts will be key to meeting the evolving needs of both corporate offtakers and energy producers.”
Negative power prices surged in 2025, exceeding 2024 levels in most markets and reaching more than 500 hours in Spain, the Netherlands and Germany, while Belgium, France and Poland recorded over 450 hours, the report added.
Aurora expects negative pricing pressures to ease after 2035 as electricity demand rises, system flexibility improves and price-insensitive subsidies are phased out.
Curtailment is also increasing as grid constraints intensify, with technical curtailment exceeding 10TWh across Europe in 2024 and forecast to rise to almost 22TWh across Great Britain, Spain and Italy by 2030.
More than 1,000GW of renewable capacity is currently awaiting grid connection approval across Europe, with Italy accounting for roughly 370GW, the analyst said.
Sameer Hussain, research senior analyst at Aurora Energy Research, said: “Record levels of negative pricing and increasing curtailment are putting significant pressure on the profitability of renewable projects across Europe. To protect returns in this more unpredictable landscape, developers need to adapt-by investing in technological innovation, diversifying their portfolios, and integrating battery energy storage solutions.”