Wind and solar will dominate electricity growth worldwide over the next decade, according to BP’s Energy Outlook 2025.
The report said more than 80% of additional power demand to 2035 will be met by new wind and solar generation, with China accounting for around half of the expansion.
Solar is forecast to outpace wind thanks to falling costs, faster build times and strong policy support. By 2050, wind and solar together are expected to deliver over half of global power supply in BP’s base scenario, rising to 70% in a pathway aligned with limiting warming to below 2°C.
BP said rapid deployment of renewables will require major investment in storage, flexible generation, advanced grids and interconnections to manage increasing shares of variable supply.
Coal’s contribution to global electricity is projected to decline sharply, from 35% in 2023 to just above 20% by 2035. Renewables are set to become the largest single source of power in this period, as wind and solar move from adding incremental supply to replacing fossil fuel generation.
Emerging economies are highlighted as the engine of demand growth. China and India alone will account for the majority of new power consumption and renewable deployment through to mid-century.
In developed markets, electricity demand is expected to remain largely flat, but rising electrification of transport, heating and industry will still push renewables deeper into the generation mix.
By 2050, BP projects that wind and solar will provide more than 60% of power in China, and over 70% across the OECD under a scenario that achieves net zero by mid-century.
The report concluded that the pace of renewables growth will be decisive for meeting climate goals, with the power sector critical to wider decarbonisation of the global energy system.