The University of Manchester has been awarded funding to lead a 12-month research project to improve understanding of the energy yield from offshore wind in UK waters, as capacity increases.
The new project, POUNDS (Prediction Of UnqualifieD losseS from offshore wind farm wakes), aims to provide a national-scale assessment of interactions between wind farms, supporting policymakers and industry leaders to optimise offshore wind energy production in the drive to net zero.
The UK government has set a target to reach 43-50GW of offshore wind by 2030.
Rapid progress has already been made with 16GW now in operation and further projects are ongoing development under the recent Contract for Difference Allocations.
Nevertheless, achieving the 2030 target requires an up to three-fold increase of capacity, potentially reaching over 100GW installed capacity by 2050.
Such substantial expansion of offshore wind farms means they must be built closer together, making it crucial to understand how this affects predictions of annual energy production.
When large groups of turbines are built in close proximity, they create “wakes” where wind slows down behind them.
Wakes have been observed extending 65 km and are increasingly impacting the performance of neighbouring farms, reducing the efficiency of the turbines in producing energy and causing conflicts between wind farm operators.
Project lead Dr Pablo Ouro, research fellow in the Department of Civil Engineering and Management at The University of Manchester, said: “Achieving the target of 43-50 GW of deployed offshore wind farms by 2030 is crucial for NetZero and energy security, but reduction in energy prediction due to wind farm wakes must be addressed.
“Our POUNDS project is key to overcoming these challenges, informing policy makers and project developers about strategies to better quantify these losses.
“Similar initiatives of national importance have been developed in Germany, The Netherlands and the US, and our project aims to support the whole UK offshore wind industry.
“With The University of Manchester’s world-class expertise and cutting-edge facilities in energy research, we are uniquely positioned to lead this project and deliver solutions that will not only optimise offshore wind farm performance but also ensure the success of the UK’s offshore renewable energy future.”
POUNDS, funded by Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) Supergen Offshore Renewable Energy Impact Hub, will be carried out in partnership with the UK’s leading Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) institutes, industry experts, and policymakers, including ORE Catapult, Arup, EDF, RWE, and The Crown Estate.
The project aims to assess how offshore wind farms affect each other’s energy production, and the revenue implications of these impacts.
It also seeks to help to identify the best locations for future offshore wind farms to minimise these losses and ensure the UK’s renewable energy targets are met.
Finally, the project aims to validate modelled performance data against operational data and improve model accuracy in forecasting wind farm energy production.
As for its methodology, POUNDS will use state-of-the-art mesoscale models – a type of advanced numerical weather forecasting model – to model the performance of wind farms spanning UK waters at a resolution of 1 km.
It will assess both the wind farms operational in 2023, and the thousands more wind turbines that are planned by 2030.
The analysis will evaluate accuracy of the model relative to real-world data and quantify the effects of inter-farm wakes on predicted energy yield.
It will also capture wind farm wakes and wind farm performance in comparison to energy export grid data.
This combination of advanced modelling and collaboration with leading stakeholders is designed to support delivery of the UK’s target to become NetZero by 2050.
Ken Kasriel, energy economist with Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, said: “The UK Government’s recent Clean Power 2030 Action Plan’s identification of inter-farm wind wakes as an area of focus highlights this issue’s importance.
“This study could make important contributions towards better understanding and planning around them.”
By modelling the interactions between wind farms more precisely, the team hopes to provide better guidance for developers and policymakers, reduce investment risks, and resolve conflicts between wind farm operators.
POUNDS could ensure that both the UK’s offshore wind expansion, and 2030 target, remain on track.
The project POUNDS will be officially launched at the 8th EPSRC ORE Impact Hub Annual Assembly, which will be held at The University of Manchester on 15th April 2025 and is open to academic colleagues.