The “rat race” to build ever-larger turbines is paralysing the offshore wind supply chain, according to global consultancy Roland Berger.
Europe has chosen offshore wind as a key pillar of its energy transition. The offshore wind sector has pledged to ramp up its capacity from 7 to 20GW/year to realise the target of 120GW capacity in 2030.
However, these objectives are under pressure as the offshore wind supply chain is currently in an impasse, Roland Berger claims in a new report.
Partner at Roland Berger Bram Albers said: “The offshore wind industry must triple its capacity. Now is the time to lay the groundwork for a robust, future-proof supply chain, to ensure competitive cost of electricity and continued industrial activity in Europe.”
The report warned that while governments are organising competitive tenders for wind farms, which increases cost pressures, project developers often opt for the largest turbines to save money. This means turbine manufacturers are engaged in a race to develop ever-larger turbines to increase their market share.
Previously, this approach resulted in lower costs, as larger turbines require fewer units to generate the same amount of energy. However, the current size of these turbines means that further increases yield relatively little cost advantage, Roland Berger said.
It warned that this “rat race” towards larger turbine models has had the opposite effect: the supply chain for components, such as gearboxes and foundations, lacks clarity about the future size of turbines, leading to hesitance in investing in new factories.
The report said contractors responsible for turbine installation are also uncertain about the size of their cranes, which deters them from ordering new vessels. Meanwhile, ports need to know at which depth to construct their quays.
This all results in significant delays in offshore wind deployment and substantial price increases due to supply chain shortages, the report warned.
The industry has been discussing the establishment of a standard for turbines for several years. The Dutch wind energy association, NedZero, proposes setting a maximum height for turbines, but to date, no standard has been implemented.
Senior associate at Roland Berger Maarten de Vries said: “To halt the increasingly fruitless rat race towards bigger turbines, we need to set an industry standard for turbine size, and to do so for long enough that the European offshore wind industry can build the robust, industrialised supply chain it needs.
“Additionally, it is important for the industry to collectively develop a roadmap to eventually transition to even larger and/or smarter turbines.
“Only with such a roadmap for the innovation of offshore wind turbines can the industry prolong its global competitiveness into the future.
“Only then can Europe achieve its energy transition in a timely and cost-effective manner.”