A review by the SUN DAY Campaign of data in two new reports just released by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals the mix of renewable energy sources (biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind) is now over 30% of total US utility-scale electrical generating capacity.
In addition, they provided a quarter of the nation’s power generation during the first seven months of 2024 and the data revealed July was the 11th month in a row in which solar was the largest source of new capacity, putting it on track to become the nation’s second-largest source of capacity – behind only natural gas – in less than three years.
In its latest monthly “Energy Infrastructure Update” (with data through July 31, 2024), FERC said 40 units of solar totalling 1291MW were placed into service in July along with two units of wind (141MW).
Combined they accounted for 76.1% of all new generating capacity added during the month. Natural gas provided the balance of 450MW.
During the first seven months of 2024, the data showed solar and wind added 15GW and 2GW respectively. Combined with 212MW of hydropower and 3MW of biomass, renewables were 89.7% of capacity added.
The balance consisted of the 1100 Vogtle-4 nuclear reactor in Georgia plus 887MW of gas, 11MW of oil, and 3MW of other.
Solar accounted for 76.9% of all new generation placed into service in the first seven months of 2024 and in July alone, it comprised 68.6% of all new capacity added.
PV capacity additions through the end of July were 81.2% higher than during the same period in 2023.
Meanwhile, new natural gas capacity was less than one-tenth (9.6%) of that added last year. New biomass capacity was also only a tenth of that added during the first seven months of 2023 while new hydropower and wind capacity additions were 4.1% and 17.8% lower respectively.
Solar has now been the largest source of new generating capacity for 11 months straight: September 2023- July 2024. For seven of those months, wind took second place.
The combined capacities of just solar and wind now constitute more than one-fifth (20.9%) of the nation’s total available installed utility-scale generating capacity.
However, a third or more of the country’s PV capacity is in the form of small-scale (eg rooftop) systems not reflected in FERC’s data. Including that additional capacity would bring the share provided by solar and wind closer to a quarter of the nation’s total, the data showed.
The latest capacity additions have brought PV’s share of total available installed utility-scale (>1-MW) generating capacity up to 9.1%, further expanding its lead over hydropower (7.8%). Wind is currently at 11.8%. With the inclusion of biomass (1.1%) and geothermal (0.3%), renewables now exceed 30% of total US utility-scale generating capacity.
Installed utility-scale solar has now moved into fourth place – behind natural gas (43.3%), coal (15.7%) and wind – for its share of generating capacity after earlier surpassing nuclear power (8%).
FERC reports net “high probability” additions of solar between August 2024 and July 2027 have risen to 90GW – an amount almost four times the forecast for wind (25GW), the second fastest-growing resource.
FERC also foresees growth for hydropower (1GW), geothermal (400MW), and biomass (127MW). On the other hand, there is no new nuclear capacity in FERC’s three-year forecast while coal, natural gas, and oil are projected to contract by 21GW, 3GW, and 2GW respectively.
If FERC’s current “high probability” additions materialise, by August 1, 2027 solar will account for more than one-seventh (15%) of the nation’s installed utility-scale generating capacity. That would be greater than either coal (13.2%) or wind (12.8%) and substantially more than either nuclear power (7.5%) or hydropower (7.3%). The installed capacity of utility-scale solar would thus rise to second place – behind only natural gas (40.3%).
Meanwhile, the mix of all renewables would account for 36.5% of total available installed utility-scale generating capacity – rapidly approaching that of natural gas – with solar and wind constituting more than three-quarters (76.1%) of the installed utility-scale renewables.
The combined capacities of all clean energies, including small-scale solar, seem likely to exceed natural gas within three years:
As noted, FERC’s data does not account for the capacity of small-scale solar systems. If that is factored in, within three years, total US solar capacity is likely to approach – and very possibly surpass – 300GW.
The mix of all renewables would then exceed 40% of total installed capacity while natural gas’ share would drop to about 37%.
FERC reports there may actually be as much as 211GW of net new solar additions in the current three-year pipeline in addition to 70GW of wind, 9GW of hydropower, 509MW of geothermal, and 198MW of new biomass. Thus, renewables’ share could be even greater by mid-summer 2027.
In its latest monthly “Electric Power Monthly” report (with data through July 31, 2024), EIA said the combination of utility-scale and “estimated” small-scale (eg, rooftop) solar increased by 25.7% in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 29.7% while small-scale solar PV increased by 16.8% thereby making solar – once again – the fastest growing source of US electrical generation. Together, solar was 7% of total electrical generation in the country for the period and 7.4% in July alone.
Small-scale solar (systems <1-MW) accounted for almost 30% of all solar generation and provided 2% of US electricity supply in the first seven months of this year.
The combination of wind and solar provided 17.8% of the nation’s electrical generation during the first seven months of 2024, said the EIA.
Between January and July, electrical generation by the mix of all renewables (i.e., solar and wind, plus hydropower, biomass and geothermal) grew by 9.1% compared to the same period a year earlier and provided 24.9% of total production. By comparison, renewables accounted for 23.9% of electrical output in the first seven months of 2023.
“Renewable energy sources, led by solar, continue to expand their share of US generating capacity and electrical production,” said the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong.
“However, future growth may depend heavily on the results of the November elections.”