New research from energy think-tank Ember shows immediate action is needed to deliver the UK’s targets on offshore wind and in August’s upcoming AR6 auction, only half the necessary offshore wind capacity is expected to be delivered unless there is immediate intervention.
This shortfall can be avoided by setting a higher budget for the tender. Increasing the AR6 budget by just 25% could deliver an additional 1GW, says the study, enough to keep targets in view if future auctions also see strong delivery.
Since the Contracts for Difference auction scheme is currently the main route to delivering offshore wind projects, the report highlights 2025’s AR7 should also be urgently reformed to support a much larger number of projects.
“This should be a no brainer,” said Ember analyst Frankie Mayo.
“A higher budget for this summer’s auction would immediately secure a real boost to the UK’s offshore industry, a straightforward win for a new government within three weeks of power.”
Failing to close the gap in the next auction would put the UK’s offshore wind targets of 50GW by 2030 at serious risk.
The UK currently has 14.7GW of installed offshore wind capacity, with another 13.3GW in construction or committed through secured government support. This means that an additional 20GW will need to be delivered by 2030 to meet targets.
The UK has a strong pipeline of potential offshore wind projects that should make it possible to meet its targets. However, Ember’s research found a strong policy backing will be needed to ensure this happens in time.
In recent years the UK has felt the impact on cost of living from reliance on a volatile global gas import. Ember’s analysis shows that growth in offshore wind would go a significant way to protecting against this volatility. Every 1GW of offshore wind could displace gas consumption by enough to heat 630m homes.