The UK’s target to decarbonise its power system by 2035 is no longer within reach, according to analysis from Aurora Energy Research.
Modelling carried out by the group shows offshore wind capacity would need to increase more than four-fold to hit the target, while nuclear would need to grow by 35% and pumped hydro storage by over 150%.
Aurora said these increases are “simply not feasible” given current development and consenting timelines, uncertainty around market design, the pace of grid expansion, and the nascency of key technologies, such as CCS and hydrogen.
It found Britain can decarbonise its power system by the early 2040s, though this is still extremely ambitious and would require unprecedented efforts from investors, developers, TSOs and policymakers.
Despite the efforts and costs required, reducing power sector emissions to net zero would be extremely worthwhile, Aurora added.
Besides contributing to meeting the legal deadline of reducing emissions to net zero across the economy by 2050, the decarbonisation of the power system would increase Britain’s energy independence and protect consumers from future spikes in global commodity prices.
Head of research for the UK and Ireland at Aurora Marc Hedin said: “The renewed global focus on the energy transition thanks to COP28 presents a valuable opportunity to take stock of the progress of decarbonisation in Britain.
“The power sector has been at the forefront of emissions reduction in GB for the past 30 years but there is still so much to do, especially considering that a net zero Britain relies heavily on a deep electrification of the economy.
“There is a high risk that concentrating efforts around an unachievable target will ultimately impede, rather than accelerate, the country’s energy transition.
“While it’s important to promote an ambitious plan, policymakers need to provide a framework that is designed to deliver the target, otherwise it’s wishful thinking. No-one invests because of a target.
“Developers, lenders and other key stakeholders need to see a concrete plan, aligned with a realistic target, that supports a stepped-up pace of capital deployment as well as accelerated project development timelines.”