The world may have crossed a “tipping point” that will inevitably make solar power the main source of energy, new research suggests.
The study, based on a data-driven model of technology and economics, finds that solar photovoltaics is likely to become the dominant power source before 2050, even without support from more ambitious climate policies.
However, it warns four “barriers” could hamper this.
These are creation of stable power grids, financing solar in developing economies, capacity of supply chains and political resistance from regions that lose jobs.
The study, led by the University of Exeter and University College London, is part of the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) project, funded by the UK Government’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF).
The researchers say policies resolving the four barriers may be more effective than price instruments such as carbon taxes in accelerating the clean energy transition.
“The recent progress of renewables means that fossil fuel-dominated projections are no longer realistic,” said Femke Nijsse, from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute.
Nijsse added: “In reality, there is a virtuous cycle between technologies being deployed and companies learning to do so more cheaply.
“When you include this cycle in projections, you can represent the rapid growth of solar in the past decade and into the future.
“Traditional models also tend to assume the ‘end of learning’ at some point in the near future – when in fact we are still seeing very rapid innovation in solar technology.
“Using three models that track positive feedbacks, we project that solar PV will dominate the global energy mix by the middle of this century.”
The researchers warn that solar-dominated electricity systems could become “locked into configurations that are neither resilient nor sustainable, with a reliance on fossil fuel for dispatchable power.”
Instead of trying to bring about the solar transition in itself, governments should focus policies on overcoming the four key “barriers”.
Addressing grid resilience Nijsse said methods of building resilience include investing in other renewables such as wind, transmission cables linking different regions, extensive electricity storage and policy to manage demand (such as incentives to charge electric cars at non-peak times).
Government subsidies and funding for R&D are important in the early stages of creating a resilient grid, she added.
The paper, published in the journal Nature Communications, is entitled: “The momentum of the solar energy transition.”