Up to 95,000 potential UK jobs will be at risk if investment and activity in renewables does not increase significantly, according to a new report.
The study by Robert Gordon University found that the UK offshore energy workforce can increase by up to 50% by 2030, with new renewable jobs outnumbering oil and gas roles.
The report forecasts the offshore energy workforce could grow from 150,000 in 2023 to 225,000 by the end of the decade.
However, the Powering up the Workforce study also warns that if the rate of investment and activity in renewables in the UK does not increase significantly, at a time when oil and gas activities are in rapid decline, then up to 95,000 potential offshore energy jobs will be at risk.
Retaining the offshore oil and gas supply chain, its workforce and associated skills over the next five years will be crucial.
This is because there continues to be limited capacity for the UK offshore renewables sector to host and accommodate the quantity of skilled oil and gas workers impacted by the predicted decline in the hydrocarbon sector until later this decade.
Professor Paul de Leeuw, Director of the Robert Gordon University Energy Transition Institute, said: “This report presents a range of workforce outcomes that could materialise over the coming years.
“There is a huge prize up for grabs and we want to equip decision makers – whether in government, industry or in individual businesses – with new insight to convert those opportunities into reality.”
“With investment at risk and wind projects facing delays, the findings underline the present-day situation for the UK offshore energy industry and its stakeholders.
“The big prize of a significant jobs gain is still within our collective reach. Inaction or simply slow progress will mean that offshore energy job numbers overall could drop by 15% to 130,000 by 2030, making the path towards net zero even harder to negotiate.”
The results in Powering up the Workforce are based on data derived from a specially developed workforce visibility tool that draws together information from industry, organisations, governments, individual companies and research analysis to yield valuable new insights.
A managed and just transition from oil and gas to renewables will still see the oil and gas workforce decline from 120,000 today to around 87,000 by 2030 (in line with production decline and decommissioning activities).
The analysis shows that there is a workforce “goldilocks zone” between 2024 and 2028 when the UK supply chain capacity and capability can be sustained, developed and invested in, so that the transferability of the offshore energy workforce is optimised.
Key to effective delivery of the goldilocks zone will be rapid investment in UK capabilities to deliver a fast-growing programme of green capital projects, which in turn will help to realise ambitious goals for domestic execution of these projects.