The UK could need as much as 90GW of wind energy and 80GW of solar power to meet its 2050 net zero carbon emissions target, according to a new report by the Energy Systems Catapult.
The report – ‘Innovating to Net Zero’ – models various pathways to reach the 2050 goal but said under any scenario electricity generation will need to double to about 600 terrawatt-hours to meet demand from heating and transport.
Generation would need to treble if hydrogen uses electrolysis, with projections of up to 300TWh a year needing to come from hydrogen to supply industry, heat and transport, the report said.
In a high renewables scenario 90GW of on- and offshore wind will be needed to deliver 370TWh, and at least 50GW would be required under a low renewables case.
As much as 80GW of solar could be needed to supply 230TWh, while major innovation and deployment in electric and heat storage technologies will be required with timescales from seconds to seasons to manage extreme weather conditions, the report added.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy may need to store up to 170 million tonnes of CO2 emissions a year by 2050 to capture industrial emissions – including hydrogen production – and to offset lifestyle emissions from air travel and livestock.
The report recommends reforming power markets to improve efficiency and unlock flexibility and distributed low carbon technologies, including to match user needs and local system circumstances.
It also calls for innovation support for technologies, such as floating offshore wind and hydrogen, as well as nuclear and CCS.
There should also be local area energy planning to identify the unique low carbon solutions, infrastructure and investment needs in different local areas to shape decision making, as well as economic incentives to go low carbon, the report also recommended.
But “even if we successfully deploy these technologies, depending on the scale achieved, the UK will still need to adopt significant land use and lifestyle changes to reach net zero”, Energy Systems Catapult said.
Energy Systems Catapult insight and evidence lead Scott Milne, said: “Last year the UK became the first major economy in the world to commit to a net zero emissions target by 2050.
“Now for the first time, we’ve modelled hundreds of potential pathways to get to net zero by 2050, ramping up or down different technologies and behaviour changes – to understand the different combinations, interactions and trade-offs of competing decarbonisation options to reach the most cost-optimised approaches.
“Broadly each potential pathway uses a combination of two different approaches: a top-down technology focused approach or a bottom-up behaviour focused approach.
“However, what stands out is – no matter which pathway the UK takes – innovation, investment and incentives across low carbon technology, land use and lifestyle is essential to achieve net zero.
“And there are massive economic opportunities for the UK to lead the world in these areas.”
The Energy Systems Catapult is a not-for-profit set up to help speed up the UK’s clean energy transition.