Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam are likely to install up to 19GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, according to new research by Wood Mackenzie.
The Asian island of Taiwan leads the way with a policy framework in place and over 5GW of approved projects that will come online as early as 2025.
By 2030, Taiwan is expected to connect upwards of 10GW of offshore wind capacity, the report said.
“Developers are leveraging Taiwan’s geographical advantages – wind conditions along the Taiwan Strait are some of the best in the region and selected wind sites are close to major power demand areas with available transmission infrastructure,” Wood Mackenzie said.
Denuclearisation and coal retirement are the key drivers to achieving Taiwan’s 2030 renewable energy target, it said
Wood Mackenzie expects offshore wind and solar will be ramped up to compensate for the lost capacity with wind power generation to increase ten-fold by 2028.
In Japan, the report said 4.5GW of new offshore wind capacity should come online from 2019 to 2028.
The government has designated 11 sites in preparation for tenders that will start in 2020, Wood Mackenzie said.
But, it noted, the average offshore wind levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) in Japan remains the highest in the region.
“Compared with other markets, Japan still faces high labour and construction costs, a lengthy environmental impact assessment process and strict local requirements,” the report said.
“Despite these barriers, the government is actively exploring ways to reduce offshore wind costs and encourage more domestic companies to participate in this emerging sector.”
South Korea has over 3.5GW of floating wind in the pipeline, despite low wind speed conditions, Wood Mackenzie said.
This is supported by the government, which has designated offshore wind as a key focus of its renewable energy plan by 2030, the report added.
Developers in Vietnam are rushing construction of at least 0.5GW of projects to take advantage of an offshore feed-in tariff that will expire in 2021, the research said.
It added that the success of future offshore wind in APAC excluding China (APeC) will depend on costs coming down.
“Currently, the average offshore wind LCOE in APeC is still 70% higher than other renewables but the trend of auctions, technology changes and development of regional offshore supply will inevitably lead to lower costs,” Wood Mackenzie said.