Global photovoltaic installations are forecast to reach a new high of almost 115GW in 2019, up by more than 17% on 2018, according to Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.
In the analyst’s ‘Global solar PV market outlook update: Q2 2019’, the market is back on a strong growth trajectory after a slowdown in 2018, with annual installations expected to rise to around 125GW per year by the early 2020s.
Wood Mackenzie senior research analyst Tom Heggarty said: “Global growth will continue despite a gradual slow-down in China, the world’s largest PV market.”
The Chinese market peaked at 53GW in 2017, driven by feed-in tariff subsidy.
“A move towards more competitive procurement of solar PV will lead to more sustainable annual additions of 30-40GW,” he added.
Auctions will remain the driver of growth in many global PV markets, said Heggarty, “We expect to see 90GW of solar PV projects awarded contracts through auctions in 2019, up from 81GW in 2018.”
According to the outlook, countries installing between 1-5GW annually will be the market’s growth engine.
In 2018, there were seven such markets but by 2022, there will be 19, including Saudi Arabia, France and Taiwan.
Heggarty said: “In India, auction activity is starting to recover after a slow-down caused by land and transmission constraints.
“In the US, announcements of new state utility IRPs, in Florida for example, are good news for the solar PV market. The European market will grow strongly as policy markets look to deliver on 2020 and 2030 renewable energy targets.
“In Latin America, Brazil looks to be the most exciting market of the moment, with both auctioned power purchase agreements with distributors and free market contracts with large consumers on offer.”
He said that in the Middle East, the interest concerns Saudi Arabia’s upcoming 1.5GW auction.
China recently announced the results of its first solar PV auction.
“A staggering 22.8GW of projects were awarded contracts in China’s inaugural auction. This is by far the world’s largest completed auction, with the next largest being the award of 3.9GW of solar PV in Spain during July 2017,” Heggarty said.
Awarded projects are intended to be connected by the end of 2019, facing tariff cuts for any delays.