Offshore wind has the potential to grow to 210GW worldwide by 2030, according to a new report from the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC).
The GWEC report – ‘Global Offshore Wind’ – said the market has grown by an average of 21% a year since 2013, with 23GW installed around the world.
Over 4GW was installed in 2017 and 2018, with China the largest market for new installations followed by the UK and Germany.
The report provides an outlook called ‘business-as-usual’, which does not incorporate further technical development or further opportunities for offshore wind, and an upside scenario which captures the additional potential.
BAU would see double-digit growth based on current policies and auctions and tenders.
It envisages annual installations of 15 to 20GW after 2025 based on growth in China and other Asian markets, amounting to 165GW of new installed capacity globally between now and 2030.
This would bring the total installed capacity to nearly 190GW, GWEC said.
The upside scenario captures additional potential such as the advancement of floating technology, increased cost competitiveness and so greater volume in mature markets, as well as the opening up of new areas.
In this scenario, over 200GW new installed capacity between now and 2030 is possible, totalling approximately 210GW.
In Europe, the market will remain flat with few projects reaching installation and COD during 2020, however, the cost competitiveness of European offshore will remain a key driver for volume.
The sector deal in the UK provides a stable outlook, while volumes for Germany have still not increased despite government’s awareness, the report said.
Total installed capacity for the region under the BAU scenario is expected to be 78GW by 2030.
The Asian offshore market including China is expected to become the largest offshore region globally with key growth markets including Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, India and South Korea.
Total installed capacity for the region under the BAU scenario is 100GW by 2030.
In the US, there is the potential for 10GW to be installed towards 2030, GWEC said.