Global wind energy growth will see about 723GW of new capacity added in the next 10 years, according to a new report from consultancy Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.
The – ‘Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q1 2019’ – said 50.2GW was added in 2018, up 4% on the previous year, boosted mainly by growth in China.
Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables research director Luke Lewandowski said: “The lifting of red warnings in key northern provinces in China unlocked development, contributing to a 37% uptick year-on-year in the country (+5.6GW), that influenced nearly 2GW of net capacity additions globally last year.
“The expiration of legacy subsidy programs in Europe tempered YoY gains in China, with countries in Northern Europe (-26% YoY) and Western Europe (-36% YoY) hit the hardest as the renewables obligation in the UK and feed-in tariffs in Finland and Germany phased out.”
The report said 2019 to 2021 will see 48% of the US’s 10-year outlook come online in order for developers to fulfil production tax credit obligations.
The start of this year has been challenging in Latin America, Wood Mackenzie said, with Mexico cancelling an auction.
Lewandowski said: “The cancellation of Mexico’s long-term auction and a critical HVDC line stymie growth potential puts a greater emphasis on the maturation of developing markets, several of which lack a schedule for the next round of auctions.
“Despite these challenges, the region boasts a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 10%.”
In Asia, aggressive renewables targets in India and offshore wind growth in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will drive a 10-year CAGR of 12.2%, excluding China, the report said.
Cumulative offshore capacity will grow to 19GW in 2028 from 111MW at the end of 2018, it said.
“China’s market recovery will continue, as additional provinces in the north work to lift red warnings, supporting 250GW of capacity through to 2028,” said Lewandowski.
“The annual share of offshore wind in China will average 18% of annual capacity from 2022 to 2028, as a result of onshore grid constraints and saturation,” he added.
In Europe, about 20GW a year is expected to be added over the next 10 years, with offshore wind the driving force.
Lewandowski said: “Offshore remains central to Europe’s outlook, comprising more than 25% of new capacity over the outlook – CAGR of 14% – and penetrating new markets in Southern and Eastern Europe.”
The report projected CAGR of 35% and 21%, respectively, for the Middle East and Africa.