Wind power capacity is expected to grow on average by 77GW a year from 2020 to 2029, representing a growth of 112%, according to new data from Wood Mackenzie,
The ‘Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q1 2020′, found 62GW of wind capacity was added globally in 2019, a 23% increase from 2018 and the second-highest annual total after 2015, when the figure was 63GW.
Wood Mackenzie research director Luke Lewandowski said: “A policy-induced build frenzy in China and the US largely drove an 11.5GW uptick in 2019 global net capacity additions when compared with 2018. Significant contributions also came from Argentina, +676MW year-on-year (YoY), Mexico, +883MW YoY, Sweden, +720MW YoY and Spain, +1.9GW YoY.”
However, Wood Mackenzie said while the story for 2019 was a positive one, 2020 will not be so lucky.
The coronavirus is likely to impact the 150GW “bulge” in global wind capacity additions expected from 2020 to 2021, according to Wood Mackenzie’s report.
Lewandowski added: “Impact from the coronavirus is expected to exacerbate an already pressure-filled 27.5GW two-year build cycle in the US.
“As the production tax credit (PTC) fades, US offshore annual capacity additions will depend increasingly on state leadership. We expect this to yield 23.3GW over the 10-year outlook period.
“Annual additions in Latin America will average more than 4GW. Development of the free market in Brazil, the execution of inaugural auction awards in Colombia, the opportunity presented by coal retirements in Chile and an increasing demand from the commercial and industrial segment in Mexico will all contribute to a compound annual growth rate of 9% in the region from 2020 to 2029.”
Compliance with the EU’s energy and climate targets for 2030 will drive the addition of 225GW within Europe across the outlook period, according to Wood Mackenzie.
“Land constraints in mature countries will push a quarter of Europe’s growth offshore, where the sector will comprise 32% of additions in Western Europe and 43% of additions in Northern Europe from 2020 to 2029,” said Lewandowski.
Steady annual growth in the Middle East and Africa will result in a 10-year CAGR of 23%. Nearly 60% of the 48GW forecast for the sub-region is concentrated in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and South Africa.
Supply chain constraints and delays caused by the coronavirus will curtail near-term growth potential in China, yet developers will still manage to connect 26GW of wind power to the grid in 2020, the report found.
Across the 10-year outlook, Wood Mackenzie expects 250GW of wind power capacity to be brought online in China. Growth in the offshore sector and wind repowering opportunities will bolster onshore development.
The rest of Asia will add 107GW between 2020 and 2029. “Additions in India will account for 51% of new capacity, as the country works to comply with aggressive targets.
“Offshore demand in the rest of the sub-region will add 18GW – or approximately 35% of new capacity – over the outlook period,” added Lewandowski.