Eastern Europe will add 16GW of onshore wind capacity in the next 10 years driven by new auctions in several countries, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.
The report – ‘Eastern Europe Onshore Wind Market Outlook 2018’ – said that Eastern Europe, Russia and the Caspian region will experience a compound annual growth rate of 9% from 2018 to 2027.
Developers only added 142MW of new wind capacity in 2017 in three markets, it said.
Wood Mackenzie market analyst and lead author of the report Sohaib Malik said: “The development will be largely driven by the implementation of auction schemes in Russia and Kazakhstan and proposed auctions in Poland and Ukraine.
“Poland will be picking back up as a dominant market in the region soon after the enactment of favourable amendments introduced to the renewable energy act in July 2018, which will allow the previously permitted, but halted, wind projects to participate in auctions. This development gives a major boost to the Polish onshore wind market.”
Russia will experience growth between 2021 and 2024 as developers are required to connect most of the 3.2GW of awarded capacity during this period, Wood Mackenzie said.
Ukraine will transition from a feed-in tariff regime to auctions by the end of 2019, which will create more competition between developers to help reduce the cost of wind power, Wood Mackenzie said.
“We expect significant coal decommissioning in Hungary, Poland and Romania after 2020 due mainly to an ageing fleet and stricter emissions regulations,” said Malik.
“As wind power becomes more competitive due to reductions in technology costs and environmental benefits, it will be in a strong position to displace this coal power capacity in EU member states across the region.”
The report also says new markets will emerge in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Slovakia to provide long-term growth prospects.
Wood Mackenzie added that only regulatory uncertainty poses a risk to its forecast, which can be “mitigated by proactive measures by the relevant governments”.
Governments in Eastern Europe will have to streamline permitting and grid integration regulations, it said.