National Grid expects the UK’s winter 2016/17 electricity capacity margin – the headroom between de-rated capacity and peak demand – to be 6.6%.
The transmission system operator said the predicted margin has increased from an earlier forecast of 2.9GW or 5.5% to 3.4GW.
“Based on this analysis, we expect the electricity margin to be tight but manageable this winter,” it said.
As of summer 2016, embedded wind capacity was 4.6GW and embedded solar increased to 11.4GW. A monthly increase of 150MW of solar capacity is factored into National Grid’s forecasts.
Wind capacity is not expected to significantly increase over the winter, it added.
Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit analyst Jonathan Marshall said the increased cushion between supply and demand shows that power cuts are exceedingly unlikely.
“The 6.6% margin is comfortably within National Grid’s statutory requirements from the Government, up by nearly 30% on last year’s margin.
“It shows how the segue from old, fossil fuel powered power stations to a system based on renewables and increased flexibility is taking place without the need for large capacity surpluses, which represent wasted investment.”
Greenpeace UK chief scientist Doug Parr added: “It’s reassuring to hear that Britain’s power system will enjoy more comfortable safety margins this winter.
“But if the government is serious about boosting our country’s energy security… it’s time for the government to start consulting on a coal phase-out and set out a plan to put clean power, efficiency and a smart grid at the heart of their energy strategy.”
Image: T-pylon (National Grid)
