The global offshore wind industry is poised for a rebound in 2025, with capacity additions expected to reach 19GW and sector-wide expenditure projected to hit $80bn.
According to research from Rystad Energy this recovery follows a slowdown at the end of last year, when new installations dropped to approximately 8GW, 2GW lower than the year prior.
A “record wave” of lease auctions is driving the resurgence, with the world’s largest offshore wind market, China, accounting for 65% of new capacity.
With this increase, total additions will exceed the previous peak in 2021 by about 1GW, surpassing the 7.7GW added in 2024, 10.2GW in 2023 and 9.3GW in 2022.
While new capacity additions demonstrate progress, uncertainty lingers regarding lease agreements – the long-term contracts between landowners and wind-energy companies, stated Rystad.
A record 55GW of offshore wind capacity was offered in lease auctions globally (excluding Mainland China) in 2024.
However, not all this capacity has yet been awarded, as offered capacity does not always translate into awarded capacity.
For instance, the US saw no bids for its 3GW floating wind auction in Oregon last year, while the Gulf of Maine auction awarded roughly 7GW of the approximately 13GW offered.
Despite 2024’s record offerings, lease auction openings are projected to decline in 2025, with an expected 30-40GW available.
While significantly lower than 2024, this projected offered capacity is still significant, aligned with levels seen in 2021 and 2022.
“Global offshore wind is set for a robust year in 2025; however, certain signals could affect its smooth upward trajectory.
“US federal policy is creating significant global ripple effects, hindering offshore wind development, especially where a large portion of auctioned capacity lies.
“President Donald Trump’s January memorandum halting new leasing and approvals on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), citing environmental and safety concerns, could last throughout his term, pausing new developments and creating continued uncertainty for ongoing projects,” said Petra Manuel, Senior Offshore Wind Analyst, Rystad Energy.