Brazil could install as much as 96GW of offshore wind capacity by 2050, accounting for nearly 20% of the country’s total generation capacity.
The 96GW is the ambitious growth framework featuring in the World Bank’s study on “Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil” conducted by DNV.
In the intermediate projection Brazil could install 32GW by 2050, accounting for 6% of the total generation capacity, while in the base case, the estimate is 16GW by 2050, representing 3% of the country’s generation capacity.
This report is one of a series of offshore wind roadmap studies commissioned by the World Bank under its Offshore Wind Development Program, funded and led by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), in partnership with the International Finance Corporation.
The analysis upon which the World Bank’s Latin Energy and Extractives Practice developed the report was executed by DNV and written in partnership with Vieira Rezende Advogados and Magalhaes Reis Figueiro Advogados.
Brazil’s offshore wind energy potential exceeds 1200GW, with 480GW from fixed foundations and 748GW from floating foundations.
This abundant resource, strategically located near demand centres, positions offshore wind as a pivotal player in the country’s future energy landscape.
The report, prepared in collaboration with the World Bank, Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), and the Energy Research Office, provides a thorough analysis for policymakers and stakeholders.
Its findings emphasise the need for a clear energy strategy, significant infrastructure investment, and prompt action to harness the growing interest in offshore wind in Brazil
Offshore wind development in the country offers a promising complement to hydroelectric power, reducing interannual variability and providing a buffer during dry periods.
It also supports Brazil’s green hydrogen targets and can drive economic growth and job creation, potentially generating up to 516,000 full-time equivalent jobs and contributing $168bn in national gross value added under the Ambitious scenario.
Additionally, it can streamline local electricity generation, reducing transmission losses by aligning resources with demand centres, including major cities.
However, several challenges exist, including high initial costs that require concessional finance and strategic seabed rights allocation.
Despite projections of significant long-term cost reductions, financing and procurement complexities remain.
Substantial investments are also needed for transmission upgrades and grid flexibility to integrate offshore wind effectively.
Environmental and social considerations further complicate development, necessitating meticulous planning and community consultations.
Upgrading regional ports, logistics infrastructure, and the offshore wind supply chain to support larger turbine production adds to the overall costs.
Executive vice-president and regional director for Latin America, energy systems at DNV Santiago Blanco said: “The country’s choice to embrace offshore wind power hinges on balancing energy demands, climate goals, and economic growth.
“Our research offers insights, not directives, outlining the challenges and opportunities to inform strategic decisions.”