North-east Scotland could establish an energy hub capable of securing 54,000 direct and indirect jobs up from 45,000 currently, if the region attracts £17bn of renewables investment over the next eight years, according to a review by Robert Gordon University (RGU).
However, the forecast scenarios also show reduced ambition could see up to 17,000 local jobs at risk, falling by up to 40% to 28,000 in eight years.
The RGU ‘Making the Switch’ review indicates that much of the £17bn towards regional renewables activities needs to be front-loaded as capex funding within the next four years to establish new large-scale manufacturing and installation capacity.
The required investment is in addition to ongoing oil and gas expenditure in the region and will need close coordination between governments and industry.
The ‘Making the Switch’ report builds on RGU’s UK offshore energy workforce transferability review in 2021, which focused on UK wide forecasts.
It shows different investment scenarios and the implications for the workforce.
With the north-east of Scotland hosting the largest energy skills cluster in the UK, representing around 28% of the UK’s offshore energy workforce and home to unique specialist knowledge and experience, the region has a critical role to play to deliver and accelerate the energy transition.
‘Making the Switch’ said that it is vital for the North-East of Scotland to retain its oil and gas workforce to provide ready-made skills to transition at the right time and support the required rapid green economy scale up.
RGU director of the energy transition institute Paul de Leeuw said: “This review is an urgent call to action and highlights the size of the prize to create an exciting new energy future that will sustain and potentially grow the industry in the north-east of Scotland.
“Building on a legacy of over 50 years in oil and gas, there is a unique opportunity to re-shape a new energy future here.
“This will require rapid, targeted investment in the North-East of Scotland to develop the project, manufacturing, installation, commissioning and operational infrastructure for the renewables sector. Sustaining the oil and gas sector’s skills and capabilities over the coming years will be critical in ensuring the region has the workforce ready to deliver on this ambition.
“The energy transition will create exciting new opportunities and industry, governments and the education sector all have a key role to play. It will require a careful balancing act.
“The opportunity of getting this right has the potential to secure the region’s economy as a global energy hub for decades to come.
“However, if we move too slowly, there won’t be a role for everyone, and it will risk a hard-hitting economic decline for the North-East of Scotland. This must be avoided at all costs.”