The UK will fail to achieve a “just and fair” transition by 2030 unless sustaining offshore energy industry jobs, supply chain investments and the economic contribution of the workforce is prioritised.
A new report by Robert Gordon University (RGU) has concluded UK and Scottish political decisions, rather than energy market economics, will determine the size of the workforce and supply chain.
In Delivering our energy future, RGU analysed over 6560 pathways for the country’s offshore energy industry between now and 2030.
Of the thousands of pathways analysed, fewer than 15 or <0.3% meet the “just and fair” transition principles.
Even these limited scenarios require success by the renewables sector in achieving higher levels of ambition through billions of pounds of additional investment in the next six years.
Director of the Robert Gordon University Energy Transition Institute Paul de Leeuw said: “Accelerating the re-purposing of the North Sea as a world-class, multi-energy basin will ensure the sector can power the country for decades to come.
“The prize for the UK to get this right is enormous.
“But to deliver this requires action and urgency, which means faster planning and consenting and access to the grid.
“We also need more flexible electricity pricing mechanisms to avoid project delays or cancellation and a proactive focus on building UK content so we can design, manufacture, install, commission and operate some of the critical new infrastructure required.
“This, as well as building and maintaining the world class skills and capabilities developed over the last few decades, will be crucial.”
The report found if the UK is unable to deliver close to 40GW (from 15GW at the end of 2023) of installed offshore wind capacity and UK content ambitions for the new activities by 2030, it is unlikely to retain the offshore energy workforce without additional activities.
It noted the ongoing decline in the oil and gas industry needs to be offset much more rapidly by identifiably greater levels of activity and higher UK content in renewables if any of the pathways to a “just and fair” transition are to remain open.
Otherwise, interim steps will need to be taken to address the decline in activities, including oil and gas production – which is currently expected to reduce by more than 40% by 2030.
To achieve this outcome, the UK offshore energy sector needs to deliver on spend of up to £200bn over the remainder of this decade across offshore wind, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and oil and gas projects.
The report also found that to sustain the offshore energy supply chain activities and capacity at an average of 2023 level, the country must deliver around £10bn spend by 2030.
It also highlighted that if the UK is unsuccessful in delivering the offshore wind ambition and content targets by 2030, it is unlikely to be able to retain the offshore energy workforce without progressing additional activities, including oil and gas over the remainder of this decade.
Each additional 10% of capex content for the offshore wind sector is estimated to yield between 3000 (‘worst case’) and 12,500 (‘best case’) jobs by 2030, found the report.
For its analysis, RGU used the United Nations definition of a “just and fair” transition – ‘ensuring that no one is left behind in the transition to low carbon and environmentally sustainable economies and societies’ and defined this further by linking it to sustaining the UK’s 154,000 direct and indirect offshore energy industry jobs and by maintaining the supply chain and offshore workforce economic contribution at 2023 levels or better by the end of the decade.