Over 680GW of new wind power capacity will come online in the next 10 years, with the offshore market accounting for nearly 40%, according to a new report from consultancy Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.
The ‘Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update: Q4 2018’ report said the overall figure is up 2% on its last forecast in the third quarter update.
Wood Mackenzie said most of the upgrades will be in the medium term boosting average annual increases by 2.7GW between 2020 and 2023.
Offshore wind in Europe will be a strong driver for growth in the region, it added.
Wood Mackenzie director of Americas power & renewables research and lead author of the report Luke Lewandowski said: “With 16GW of offshore wind power capacity installed in Europe by the end of 2018 and more than 47GW expected to come online in the region from 2018 to 2027, the European offshore sector continues to be a focal point of growth for the wind power industry.
“The European offshore wind power experience has encouraged governments in other regions to support offshore wind to comply with carbon reduction strategies and renewable energy targets as well as more firmly secure domestic power supply.”
The report added that favourable announcements from the governments of Japan and South Korea resulted in a more than 1.5GW upgrade quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) on its projections.
By the end of the consultancy’s 10-year outlook, the two countries will each have an installed offshore base of more than 2GW.
“A significant rate of growth, considering that neither country has more than 100MW of offshore wind power capacity installed today,” Wood Mackenzie said.
The company also upgraded its outlook for the US offshore market.
“Attractive price signals are expected to motivate an increase in state-level procurement activity from both pioneering states, such as Massachusetts and New York, as well as new entrants over the long-term, such as California and Delaware,” said Lewandowski.
The upgrade will increase installed offshore capacity in the US to approximately 10GW by the end of 2027, representing 15% of all new capacity over the 10-year outlook, the report said.
Elsewhere in the Americas, election results in Brazil, Mexico, and Quebec, Canada, have or may impact the wind power outlook in these markets, it said.
Conservative wins in Brazil and Canada threaten the prospects for wind power development in the long-term, while the impact of a more liberal administration in Mexico is unclear, the consultancy said.
In Australia, Wood Mackenzie said auction awards and financing commitments flourished ahead of the market’s renewable energy target deadline, resulting in a nearly 2GW upgrade to the outlook QoQ and increasing capacity under construction to 5GW.
The most significant changes to the consultancy’s outlook this quarter are in Scandinavia, namely Sweden, Norway and Finland.
The report has a more than 5GW upgrade QoQ, with these three countries accounting for 15% of new onshore capacity installed in Europe over the next 10 years.
In eastern Europe, Poland plans about 1GW of capacity, but downgrades in Ukraine and Russia QoQ, however, dampen the boost from Eastern Europe’s largest wind power market, it added.