The leading three western turbine manufacturers will increase their market share from 47%, or 32GW, in 2019 to more than 60%, or 48GW, by 2028, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie.
By then Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and GE Renewable Energy are expected to control three quarters of the sector.
After a decade of fragmentation, the top five global wind turbine suppliers are “strengthening their hold on the industry”, according to the analyst outfit.
Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Shashi Barla said: “Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and GE will draw upon strategic relationships with major asset owners to execute large-scale projects while also investing in new products and technologies.
“Vestas, the clear leader in this space, will see its market share elevated to an average of 20% over the next five years.”
According to Barla, Siemens Gamesa will surpass 100GW of cumulative installed capacity by the end of 2019, becoming the second turbine manufacturer after Vestas to reach this milestone.
Barla added: “Vestas reinforces its leading position by being the first turbine OEM to install more than 10GW of annual capacity during 2019. Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, GE and Goldwind will each install around 10GW in 2020 due to surge in US and China market activity.
“Goldwind’s leading position in China, combined with large projects in Australia and Canada, will see the company take the number two spot for the very first time in 2020.”
The “appetite to invest and “churn out” new products and technologies to lower levelised cost of energy (LCoE), compared with peers will “aid in developing an improved commercial position,” according to Wood Mackenzie.
Regional players, however, will face an “uphill battle” to compete, said Barla referring to recent troubles at Senvion and Suzlon.
He said that Nordex and Enercon are expected to “strengthen” their presence with increasing investments in new wind turbine technologies.
The former is expected to install a record 5.5GW of average annual capacity in 2020 and 2021, a substantial increase of 40% when compared with 2019.
Turbine OEMs only focussed on the onshore wind segment will compete in a flat – 60GW average – global market for the next decade. However, the offshore industry is expected to see a “flurry of activity” over the outlook period.
Siemens Gamesa continues to be an “undisputed offshore market leader”, with more than 15GW of backlogged orders while GE has made an “enormous splash”, with a combined 4.8GW of orders signed this year in the UK and the US.
MHI Vestas’ “robust positioning” will elevate its global rank to be within the top 10 turbine manufacturers by 2023 and number five globally by 2027-2028, representing the only pure-play offshore player within the top five.
The company has already secured contracts in seven countries totalling more than 7GW.
Barla added, “MingYang has become rising star in the Chinese offshore sector, with more than 4.5GW of orders signed in the past year. A closer relationship in Guangdong province, the largest offshore market in China, will sustain MingYang’s positioning in the long-term.”
Subsidy phase-out in China is expected to trigger a surge in order volume to a combined 56GW in 2019 and 2020.
Ten of the top 15 turbine OEMs in 2020 will be Chinese, capitalising on a domestic demand surge.