Vestas is expected to have the highest market share of turbine manufacturers in 2019, according to a new report by Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.
The ‘Global wind turbine OEM market share forecasts H1 2019′ report said that Siemens Gamesa will be second followed by GE.
The three companies will have over 50% market share this year, it said.
Wood Mackenzie said the top five turbine OEMs have reached industry consolidation and are expected to surpass a combined market share of 68% by 2020, up from 47% five years ago.
Consolidation will also creep into the Chinese market, as tier two and three Chinese OEMs begin to lose ground in competitive auctions, the report said.
Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables principal analyst Shashi Barla said: “Chinese leaders, Goldwind and Envision, are popular due to product reliability and track record, strengthening domestic market share in China to more than 50%.
“International expansion in Latin America, Africa and APAC will see both positioned in the top five global OEM list.”
“European pioneers Enercon and Nordex swing back into action with increased order activity over the last 12 months, paving the way for a strong performance in 2020/21 outside of core European markets with cost-optimised platforms.
“However, both may face an uphill battle when it comes to competing with their larger western peers.”
In the offshore market Siemens Gamesa and MHI Vestas are expected to have more than 60% cumulative market share by 2023.
GE must focus on commercialising the Halide-X 12MW-220 in forthcoming auctions in order to win market share from competitors, Wood Mackenzie said.
In the Chinese offshore sector, the top four offshore turbine OEMs – SEwind, Goldwind, Ming Yang and Envision – have more than 90% of the market.
Barla said: “GE’s 3 Haliade 150 turbines became operational in Fujian, China in 2018 and the company’s plans to set up a manufacturing facility in Jieyang, Guangdong indicate serious intentions in a market dominated by domestic OEMs.
“Goldwind remains the China’s undisputed leader due to track record, product reliability and supply chain dependability.
“However, Envision emerged as a shining star in the Chinese OEM competitive landscape thanks to a focus on low wind and ultra-low wind speed segments.”
The single largest market for Vestas, GE and Siemens Gamesa is the US, the report said.
Barla said: “(Siemens Gamesa) is working to revive its prospects in the US before the federal renewable electricity production tax credit fades, while NextEra and Invenergy are maintaining their historical preference for GE as a turbine supplier.
“Vestas has been successful with utilities and IPPs from both the US and Europe, which is illustrated in large volumes of turbines being shipped to MidAmerican, Xcel , EDF and Avangrid.”
Markets in the Europe, Middle East, Africa, Russia and Caspian regions are dominated by Vestas, he added.
This is “due to geographic diversification and a strong presence in emerging market auctions, such as Russia, the Middle East and Africa”, Barla said.
But Siemens Gamesa’s success in European markets, including Spain and Turkey, and emerging African markets, including Egypt and Morocco, will strengthen the company’s presence in the region, he added.
In India, Suzlon and Siemens Gamesa have over 50% of the market auction volume, but a surge in market demand will create room for new players, Wood Mackenzie said.