Chinese wind turbine exports are expected to grow from just under 10GW in the past 12 years to more than 100GW in the next decade, according to data from analyst outfit Brinkmann.
Regions in Asia, the Middle East and Africa will be the main markets for exports, with a breakthrough in the South American market over the next decade.
Goldwind and Envision are expected to dominate the export of Chinese onshore wind turbines between 2024 and 2034, accounting for nearly 90% of Chinese OEMs’ onshore wind exports.
Brinckmann predicts limited penetration by Chinese turbine makers in mature European markets and the US over the next decade.
The study also found that Vestas is expected to maintain its leadership outside China, which is underpinned by its technological leadership, expansive geographic reach and development pipeline.
Meanwhile, Nordex is well-positioned to grow its market share significantly in the coming decade, leveraging its advanced technology offerings and competitive pricing.
This growth is further supported by the challenges faced by Siemens Gamesa with its 4.X and 5.X platforms and GE Vernova’s strategic shift to prioritise the US market.
In offshore wind Siemens Gamesa is expected to maintain its leadership outside China.
As the first western OEM to install a 20+MW offshore wind turbine prototype, Brinckmann expects the manufacturer to “force its peers to follow suit” to secure market shares after 2030.
Vestas’ installations are expected to increase significantly due to its V236 model and keep pace, conditional on matching Siemens Gamesa’s technology development.
GE Vernova is expected to have small installation volumes in the short- to mid-term but to re-enter the market in 2030, conditional on introducing a new, competitive technology.