Around 267GW of grid-scale wind and solar renewables capacity is expected to be added across Europe by 2030, according to new analysis by LCP Delta.
The buildout will be accompanied by a surge in household electrification in major European economies, the report forecasts.
This will see high and sustained levels of power market volatility and growing distribution network congestion, meaning that rapid growth in flexibility, through both the shifting of demand and via the deployment of grid-scale energy storage, will be critical for a successful transition.
Both forms of flexibility will grow rapidly from 2025-30, with grid-scale batteries seeing 41GW of new capacity and demand side flexibility increasing five-fold from 20GW in 2024 to 100GW across seven major European markets.
Germany is now the most attractive market for grid-scale batteries, taking over from GB, according to the analysis.
For both grid-scale batteries and demand side flexibility, Spain is the least attractive of the regions assessed.
Three key transition challenges analysed by LCP Delta include engaging with customers, distribution network congestion, and power market volatility across seven European markets: Great Britain, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands.
According to the report, grid-scale wind and solar additions across these markets will hit 267GW by the end of the decade, with 59GW in Great Britain.
In total, renewables capacity could generate 60% of annual demand in four markets by 2030, although a mismatch in generation and demand means the actual figure will be lower.
In addition, renewables penetration will see a surge in excess generation, with GB and Germany expected to see excess renewable and nuclear generation in 56% and 46% of hours by 2030, respectively, compared to just 6% and 17% in 2024.
Europe’s electrolysis pipeline is meanwhile set to grow to 63GW, but only 9% will be at advanced stages of development. The UK’s electrolysis pipeline will grow to 8.7GW over the period, with only 5% in advanced stages, according to the report.
Jon Slowe, partner at LCP Delta, said: “We are currently witnessing the disruption of traditional energy value chains, as the old energy retail system gives way to a new interconnected value chain, filled with opportunity for companies able to evolve and even pivot their businesses.
“A lot of the recent focus of the transition has rightly been on the supply side and developing the infrastructure we need. This ongoing transformation is crucial. But the next step will see flexibility and customer engagement play a much more central role.
“The opportunities for companies that can bring flexibility to market, and can simplify customer’s electrification journeys, is enormous.
“Our report suggests that in this brave new world, only holistic approaches that overcome traditional siloed thinking will find success.”