Limiting global warming to levels set out in the Paris Agreement remains possible due to the record growth of key clean energy technologies, according to the Independent Energy Agency (IEA).
Driving greenhouse gas emissions from the world’s energy sector to net zero and limiting global warming to 1.5°C remains possible due to the record growth of key clean energy technologies, though momentum needs to increase rapidly in many areas, according to a new edition of the IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap.
Since 2021, record growth in solar power capacity and electric car sales are in line with a pathway towards net zero emissions globally by mid-century, as are industry plans for the roll-out of new manufacturing capacity for them.
This is significant, since those two technologies alone deliver one-third of the emissions reductions between today and 2030 in the pathway.
Clean energy innovation has also been delivering more options and lowering technology costs.
In this year’s updated net zero pathway, global renewable power capacity triples by 2030.
Meanwhile, the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements doubles, sales of electric vehicles and heat pumps rise sharply, and energy sector methane emissions fall by 75%.
These strategies, which are based on proven and often cost-effective technologies for lowering emissions, together deliver more than 80% of the reductions needed by the end of the decade.
“Keeping alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires the world to come together quickly.
“The good news is we know what we need to do – and how to do it.
“Our 2023 Net Zero Roadmap, based on the latest data and analysis, shows a path forward,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“But we also have a very clear message: Strong international cooperation is crucial to success. Governments need to separate climate from geopolitics, given the scale of the challenge at hand.”
The Roadmap outlines a route to net zero emissions for the global energy sector by 2050 but recognises the importance of fostering an equitable transition that takes different national circumstances into account. For example, advanced economies reach net zero sooner to allow emerging and developing economies more time.
The net zero pathway achieves full access to modern forms of energy for all by 2030 through annual investment of nearly $45bn per year – just over 1% of energy sector investment.
Staying on track means almost all countries must move forward their targeted net zero dates and it also hinges on mobilising a significant increase in investment, especially in emerging and developing economies.
In the new zero pathway, global clean energy spending rises from $1.8tn in 2023 to $4.5tn annually by the early 2030s.
In the updated net zero scenario, a huge policy-driven ramping up of clean energy capacity drives fossil fuel demand 25% lower by 2030, reducing emissions by 35% compared with the all-time high recorded in 2022.
By 2050, fossil fuel demand falls by 80%.
The report stresses the importance of stronger international cooperation to limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
It warns that a failure to sufficiently step up ambition and implementation between now and 2030 would create additional climate risks and make achieving the 1.5°C goal dependant on the massive deployment of carbon removal technologies, which are expensive and unproven at scale.