Countries climate change commitments are not on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to a new UN report.
The UN Climate Change ‘Synthesis Report’ assesses climate action ambition contained in 75 countries’ new or updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submissions up to 31 December 2020.
The report found that the majority of these countries increased their levels of ambition to reduce emissions.
However, the level of ambition communicated through these NDCs indicates that changes in these countries’ total emissions would be small, less than -1%, in 2030 compared with 2010.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by contrast, has indicated that emission reduction ranges to meet the 1.5°C temperature goal should be around -45% in 2030 compared with 2010.
UN Climate Change executive secretary Patricia Espinosa said: “We are encouraged by the recent political shift in momentum towards stronger climate action throughout the world, with many countries, including some major emitters, setting net-zero emissions goals by mid-century and global corporations committing to stronger climate action, but this report shows that current levels of climate ambition are not on track to meet our Paris Agreement goals.
“It is vitally important that we get more clarity on how countries are planning to fulfil those longer-term commitments.
“If we want to stand any chance of reducing emissions by 45% by 2030 and embark on the road towards carbon neutrality around mid-century, transformative decisions need to be taken now.”
The report clarifies the pressing need to raise ambition, but it also contains some encouraging findings, said UN Climate Change.
The new or updated NDCs submitted in 2020 show that governments take the NDCs and, more broadly, the Paris Agreement seriously, with commitment and responsibility, it said.
The quality of NDCs, including data on mitigation targets, has clearly increased, and implementation is addressed much more comprehensively, the UN said.
Espinosa also noted that the Synthesis Report is a “snapshot, not a full picture” of the NDCs as Covid-19 posed significant challenges for many nations with respect to completing their submissions in 2020.
She indicated a second report will be released prior to COP26 in 2021 with the expectation many more countries, specifically major emitters, will be included.